Escalating Tensions in Yemen Mark a Turning Point

The risk of a regional war is growing, but a peaceful settlement can still be reached if cool heads prevail.

Yemen is witnessing the escalation of major military tension, which has once again put the western coast and the area around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the forefront of regional developments. Operation Tolo Yemen, launched by forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of Yemen, has brought results.

The government forces have advanced towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and are now fighting the strengthened positions of the Houthis. Clashes continue in parts of Zobab area and around Zobab airport.

The main question now is whether these military moves can bring about a lasting change in the balance of power and whether it will widen the confrontation or open the way for a new negotiation process.

Battles are centered around Bab al-Mandeb due to its strategic location in global trade and energy flows. This is particularly important for the parties to the conflict in Yemen because control of the coastline, islands and surrounding highlands offers different capabilities for surveillance, military deployment and maritime traffic threats.

Advances along the coast may enable government forces to recapture key positions and limit the Houthis' room for maneuver. However, it does not by itself ensure the safety of the strait or eliminate threats to navigation.

Even if the Houthis lose their positions on the coast, they can still maintain their ability to carry out attacks in the Red Sea. Threats to maritime traffic do not necessarily depend on direct control of the strait; They also depend on the availability of missiles, drones, launch platforms, supply networks and the ability to operate from other locations.

With the movement of operations from the coastal strip to the highlands, especially the mountains of Kohbob in Lahj province and the highlands in the west and southwest of Taiz province, the challenges caused by terrain, defense, movement and supply become more intense.

In this context, three distinct levels should be distinguished: recapturing the coastal positions, establishing military control over them and creating a sustainable capacity to secure the strait and its surrounding areas. Confounding these levels may lead to an overestimation of the results of the operation or an underestimation of the enemy's ability to continue the war.

The recent statements of Dr. Rashad Al Alimi, the head of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, indicate a change in goals: from curbing the threat of the Houthis to restoring government institutions and liberating Sana'a.

This shift gives the ongoing battle a national dimension that goes beyond limited gains on the ground. However, its success depends on the ability of government forces to unify the command, security and coordination of various military formations.

In order to preserve the gains and prevent this confrontation from turning into an internal conflict, it is necessary to have a split in the components of the government - especially on the issues of the South.

Success requires coordination among participating organizations, avoiding competition over spheres of influence, and linking military gains to security and political governance that can prevent factional warfare.

This is especially important because the formation that plays the most effective role in the coastal battles, the Southern Giants Brigade, originates from the southern provinces.

It is difficult to escalate the tension of the Houthis apart from the Iran war. Iran's support for this group is well known, but recent media reports have also revealed its extent. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reportedly directed Houthi movements along the coast and encouraged escalation against Saudi Arabia, pledging to provide more support.

Controlling Bab al-Mandeb is strategically important to Iran and its allies, as increased pressure there could provide more leverage in the Iran conflict.

For Saudi Arabia, involvement in the Yemeni conflict stems from direct security concerns and a desire to reduce threats to its territory and nearby sea lanes.

In this context, Saudi Arabia's response to deadly airport attacks seems very likely. Riyadh may be less inclined to limit itself to familiar exchanges along the front lines and could instead target more important sites or capabilities within the Houthis' military structure. How the response might represent an attempt to impose significant costs without immediately expanding the confrontation into a wider regional war.

At the level of the Persian Gulf, collective military participation seems less certain. These attacks could prompt an emergency meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council, stronger political statements or greater defense coordination, but reviving a joint military campaign against the Houthis will be more difficult. The Gulf states no longer have the same strategic alignment on Yemen, while differences, particularly between Saudi and UAE priorities, continue to limit collective action.

Pakistan and Türkiye have also announced their support for Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Pact, although the exact parameters of their participation have not yet been determined. The current escalation may therefore test whether these partnerships remain political and defense frameworks or evolve into practical military support, including the deployment of stronger air defenses.

US involvement is also possible, but any direct role is likely to be limited. Previous US intervention in Yemen focused more on deterrence, maritime security, and threat containment than decisively shifting the balance of the battlefield in favor of government forces.

An escalating confrontation does not automatically mean that all sides are seeking open war. Some may use escalation to improve deterrence or their negotiating position, although the risk of miscalculation remains.

The developments of the war in Yemen in the near future depend on the government forces. The ability to maintain the positions they have regained, securing the area around the strait and communication roads, and removing the threat of the Houthis from the heights. If these conditions are met, the balance of military and political pressure may shift, although this will not necessarily end the Houthi maritime threat.

However, if the advance stalls in difficult-to-conquer positions and the Houthis are able to continue using missiles and drones to launch counterattacks, this could set up a protracted confrontation. A war of attrition can have devastating human and economic effects not only on Yemen, but throughout the region.

The risk of escalation of tension and war at the regional level may still force the parties to seek an understanding or an arrangement to stop the war. However, turning military advances into a settlement requires addressing broader political and security issues, including power-sharing arrangements, mutual guarantees, and security of sea lanes.

In other words, the current coastal battle could be a gateway to a broader change in the course of the Yemeni crisis rather than another round in a long war.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.