What Is Potash and Why Is the US Importing It From Belarus?

US Reliance on Canadian Potash, a Key Fertilizer Mineral, Adds to Farmers' Cost Worries Amid Trade Tensions

The United States is preparing to receive its first shipment of Belarusian potash in four years as President Donald Trump seeks cheaper fertilizer for American farmers amid rising costs linked to the Iran war and a trade dispute with Canada.

A shipment of 30,000 tons of potash is expected to arrive at the Port of New Orleans on Wednesday, according to Kpler data. The shipment follows Washington's decision to lift sanctions against major Belarusian potash producers in March, paving the way for a resumption of trade.

List of 3 items List 1 of 3 Belarus released 25 political prisoners in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions.

List 2 of 3 Recession fears lurk as the US and Canada engage in a trade war.

List 3 of 3 Belarus released 123 prisoners, including Ales Bialiatsky, with the lifting of US sanctions.

end of list Although the shipment from Belarus represents only a fraction of the 5.6 million tons of potash the United States imported last year, it represents a tentative start to relations between Washington and Minsk.

Trump has said the United States is working on a larger deal to buy Belarusian fertilizer at a much lower price than it pays Canada, its dominant supplier. But analysts have questioned whether Belarus can compete with Canadian producers on price and increase its exports enough to significantly alter the U.S. market.

What is potash and why does the US need it?

Potash is a potassium-rich mineral that is a basic fertilizer element. Potassium, an essential plant nutrient, has no substitute, and potash is widely used in agriculture, including in the cultivation of corn and soybeans.

The United States is heavily dependent on imports to meet its potash needs. According to the US Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity Summary, Canada accounts for almost 80% of US potash imports. Russia accounts for 12%, the second largest share of US potash imports.

This reliance on fertilizer supplies has become an economic and political concern, especially as farmers face rising production costs. In recent months, US farmers have reported higher fuel and fertilizer costs, putting pressure on tight profit margins.

Trump has reportedly been concerned that the fiscal squeeze could cost Republicans some of the US farm vote in this year's midterms. In 2024, Trump won 78 percent of the vote in agricultural counties. At an agricultural roundtable in Wisconsin in June, Trump promised that fertilizer prices would "come down a lot" as the United States exits the Iran conflict.

Disruption of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has put pressure on global fertilizer markets, especially nitrogen-based products. However, potash is less directly exposed to the crisis because the United States relies heavily on Canadian resources.

Trump has argued that buying Belarusian potash could reduce those costs. An additional supplier could also give US buyers more options in a market dominated by Canadian imports.

For farmers, the immediate benefits are unclear. Cod is one of several major expenses that agricultural businesses face, along with diesel fuel and machinery. Even a drop in potash prices doesn't necessarily offset increases elsewhere.

In September, Trump took to social media to brag about a potential potash deal with Belarus.

"The United States is working on a major deal to buy potash from Belarus," Trump said in the post. "A much lower price than what we are currently paying to Canada would be great news for our farmers and ranchers."

Trump has touted Belarusian potash as a cheaper alternative to Canadian goods, but the economics of delivering it to American buyers complicates the plan.

Belarus is landlocked and EU restrictions have affected its export routes, forcing potash shipments to take a more complicated route through Russia. According to the Financial Times, the incoming cargo was loaded at the Russian port of Bronka near St. Petersburg.

These logistical challenges can increase shipping costs and make Belarus' supply less competitive, even if the product itself is cheaper.

Export scale is also important. One shipment indicates that trade between the United States and Belarus has resumed, but this does not mean that Belarus can replace a significant share of Canadian potash or lower prices across the US market.

However, access to an alternative supplier could give Washington more leverage in negotiations with Canadian producers, potentially helping US buyers secure more competitive potash prices.

Can Belarus replace Canada as the main potash supplier to the US?

Relations between the United States and Canada have been strained since the start of Trump's second term, when he launched a barrage of tariffs on most trading partners, including Canada. His government initially imposed a 25 percent tariff on many Canadian imports, including potash, in March 2025, but reduced the tariff to 10 percent after opposition from agriculture groups and lawmakers. Potash that meets the requirements of the USMCA trade agreement — the trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada — is exempt. Most Canadian potash imports fall under the USMCA standard and remain duty-free.

Trump has claimed that Washington will continue to buy from Canada, even as Belarus has offered to sell potash at a lower price.

But Belarus is unlikely to continue as a major supplier. In September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the country could not supply the United States with large amounts of potash fertilizer.

"Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other Western markets, we simply don't have that volume — everything is contracted," Lukashenko said.

Whether or not the October shipment becomes part of a larger deal depends on the ability to maintain exports and sustain a diplomatic opening between Washington and Minsk.

Why did America impose sanctions on Belarus and why are they being lifted?

The planned shipping marks an important step in reviving trade between Washington and Minsk, which have been at odds for years over Belarus' human rights record and its support for Russia's war against Ukraine.

The United States under former Democratic President Joe Biden imposed more sanctions on Belarus in 2021 after the authoritarian Lukashenko government suppressed mass protests against the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Belarus has also faced Western sanctions for allowing Russian forces to use its territory in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

But since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, his administration has pursued direct negotiations with Lukashenko. These negotiations have led to the release of political prisoners in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions and the creation of a path for the renewal of economic relations.

Belarus released 250 political prisoners in March under a US-brokered deal. Washington subsequently lifted sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers and eased restrictions on several financial institutions. In September, US special envoy John Cole announced another deal under which Belarus would release 25 prisoners in exchange for lifting sanctions.

This rapprochement has opened the way for proposals for deeper business cooperation.

Before the deal, Svetlana Sikhanovskaya, the leader of the exiled opposition in Belarus, said that the deal with Lukashenko was fraught with risks.

"Our position is that it is not time to do business with the regime while we all have income," Sikhanovskaya told Ambassador Arjan in September, "from potash to suppressing and supporting the Russian war machine."

The proposal did not specify whether Washington would participate in the project. But alongside Trump's stated interest in buying Belarusian potash, it shows how Minsk is looking to turn improved political relations into broader business opportunities.