Two months before the start of the war with Iran, the then Chief of Staff of the US Army had warned that the country was facing a severe shortage of missile defense ammunition. During this conflict, the US used 61% of the Patriot missile inventory and 82% of the THAAD missile inventory.

CBS wrote: According to several American officials familiar with the matter, General Randy George, the then Chief of Staff of the US Army, had warned in late December, two months before the start of the US war with Iran, that the country's army was facing a severe shortage of missile defense ammunition and that this shortage would continue for the next five years. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegst fired George in April, amid a war with Iran.

According to "Select" report; This article continues: According to US officials who spoke to CBS News, George's risk assessment was included in the Pentagon's Global Force Management Allocation Plan (GFMAP); An annual document that, with the approval of the Minister of Defense, specifies in which regions of the world forces and weapons will be deployed and allocated.

He had warned that stockpiles of THAAD and Patriot missiles would remain at a low and strategically worrisome level until 2030. This assessment was prepared for the program of the US Department of Defense in fiscal year 2027; That is, before the start of the war led by the US and Israel against Iran, which has now entered its seventh month.

U.S. officials, who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly, said the assessment was driven by several factors: the transfer of Patriot systems to Ukraine after a Russian attack in 2022, the use of munitions to defend Israel and a reduction in the capacity of the U.S. defense industrial base.

CBS News declined to release the exact percentage figures provided by US officials due to security concerns. George also declined to comment.

US officials say that while the country has a significant stockpile of some offensive munitions, including Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) and Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), the missile defense munitions used in the THAAD and Patriot systems are at a strategically low and worrisome level.

The THAD system is one of the most advanced missile defense systems of the US Army, which is designed to intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles in the final phase of their flight; Both inside the earth's atmosphere and at a height slightly above the atmosphere.

The US Army has eight TOD launchers. Each barrage consists of 90 soldiers who fire six truck-mounted launchers. Each truck launcher has eight missiles. According to a 2025 report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, each launcher controls a total of 48 interceptor missiles.

The Patriot Air Defense System is designed to protect military installations, forces and other critical infrastructure against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as hostile aircraft. This system can deal with a wider range of air threats at lower altitudes compared to THAAD; But the simultaneous use of these two systems creates overlapping and more effective defense layers against missile attacks.

The Patriot ammunition, whose reserves have reached a critical level, is the "Patriot Advanced Capability-3" (PAC-3) interceptor missile; A high-speed surface-to-air missile designed to destroy tactical ballistic missiles and incoming cruise missiles by directly hitting them. According to US officials who spoke to CBS News, the PAC-3 missiles are also capable of shooting down enemy aircraft.

"These are the two types of ammunition the U.S. military will use the most in a conflict with China," said Mark Kensian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior defense and security adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). For example, we're not going to use a lot of Javelin missiles, because the volume of ground combat will be relatively limited. Even the use of artillery will be limited; "But air defense and missile defense will have a very wide role."

An estimate released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in April showed that it currently takes defense contractors four years and five months to deliver new orders for THAAD interceptors. The average delivery time for Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles is three and a half years.

According to CSIS estimates, before the war with Iran, the United States started 2026 with about 2,300 Patriot interceptor missiles, and during this conflict, it consumed between 1,050 and 1,430 missiles from these stocks; A figure that can mean the consumption of a maximum of 61% of the pre-war stock. Fewer than 500 missiles were expected to be delivered in fiscal year 2026 to replace the stockpile.

According to the CSIS report, before the war with Iran, the stockpile of THAAD interceptor missiles was about 355. During the war, between 190 and 290 missiles of this type were used; A figure that is equivalent to about 82% of the pre-war stock. No new deliveries were anticipated for fiscal year 2026 to offset these reserves. In the current financial year, i.e. 2027, America has submitted a request to purchase more than 800 THAAD missiles.

Two of the largest US defense contractors, namely Lockheed Martin and RTX through its Raytheon subsidiary, participate in the production of these systems and their main components. These companies have recently signed agreements aimed at speeding up production.

Lockheed Martin announced in January that it plans to increase the annual production capacity of THAAD interceptor missiles from 96 to 400; That means more than four times slower.

Although the war with Iran has caused missile defense munitions to be consumed at a much faster rate, decades of Pentagon spending decisions, a shrinking defense industrial base, and successive military operations that use up weapons faster than manufacturers can replace them have all contributed to the current shortage.

A US official told CBS News that even if the US can prevent further use of THAAD and Patriot missiles in Iran or other conflicts, it will take until the next presidential midterm election in 2030 to rebuild the stockpile to the low level of December 2025.

Sean Parnell, the Pentagon's chief spokesman, said in response to a question from CBS News: "The claims about the shortage of American ammunition are false. "When the fake media irresponsibly repeats these lies, the real consequences are clear: our enemies become more emboldened to arm or attack American forces."

He added that the US still has "all the necessary facilities to carry out an attack at the time and place that the president chooses".

"We have conducted successful operations across multiple combatant commands, and at the same time, we have a vast arsenal ready to defend our people and our interests," Parnell said.

### How is ammunition distributed around the world?

The US military is divided into 11 integrated combatant commands, each of which is responsible for a region of the world or a specialized military mission. In the operation against Iran, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) headed by Admiral Brad Cooper of the US Navy is responsible for the operation.

Each combat command needs a certain number of troops and weapons. The Pentagon uses a framework called "Global Force Management" to decide where to deploy US forces, their military units and some of the military's most in-demand weapons.

The "Global Force Management Allocation Plan" or GFMAP is the main focus of this process. This plan specifies what forces will be available to combat commanders, for what missions and for how long.

This plan is usually set based on the federal government's fiscal year. The Pentagon generally begins each new fiscal year with a predetermined plan for a significant portion of the forces that will be deployed or remain in mission over the next 12 to 24 months; Therefore, every time a commander requests troops or weapons, the decision does not start from scratch.

However, this plan is not definitive and immutable. Wars begin, crises develop, missions end, and commanders are faced with unforeseen events to deal with.

For example, US European Command may want to deploy more Patriot systems in Poland, while US Central Command needs the same resources in Kuwait. At the same time, the US Indo-Pacific Command may also need these systems to deal with possible situations related to China.

As a result, troops and military equipment are constantly being transferred from one region to another.

For example, in April 2025, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, announced at a meeting of the US Senate Armed Services Committee that the country's military had transferred a Patriot battalion from the region under his responsibility to the US Central Command. This transfer took place in the midst of ongoing conflicts with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

### What factors led to the current lack of weapon systems?

According to Keynesian, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, American military planners abandoned the assumption that the country might have to fight a protracted war with another superpower.

"After the Cold War, our planning was based on short-term regional wars with countries like Iraq or North Korea," Kensian said. To deal with such countries, there was no need for the huge reserves that we needed during the Cold War. "We needed much less reserves."

He added: "We have shrunk the industrial base. There was the famous story of "Last Supper"; The meeting, which was actually a dinner party, was organized by the Deputy Minister of Defense for the managers of defense industry companies. He told them that there is not enough money to continue the activities of all companies; So you have to merge with each other or get out of this business. They did the same."

According to the CSIS analysis, the mergers resulting from this process reduced the number of major US aerospace and defense contractors from 51 companies to five companies.

Additionally, the Pentagon's military procurement decisions have historically often reduced spending on munitions and missiles to free up more funds for fighters, tanks, and warships; Even in a situation where the importance of these ammunitions and missiles for fighting was recognized.

Kensian told CBS News that the consolidation and concentration of the defense industry created an industrial structure that produced high productivity in peacetime, but was not designed for a sudden and massive increase in production capacity in wartime.

"We have abandoned all capacity for surge production because it was thought that such capacity was not necessary," he said. "That's why we got to this situation when the war in Ukraine started."

"After about six months, we realized that we didn't have enough ammunition and equipment for a long-term conflict," Kensian added.

Under the Joe Biden administration, there was a renewed focus on reviving the ability to rapidly increase production in the defense industry, but rebuilding this capability would take time.