Expert: The role of oil in the global energy mix is set to decline

According to Irina Pruvornaya, the focus of energy security has shifted from resource availability to logistical flexibility and economic adaptability.

NOVOSIBIRSK, October 15. /TASS/. According to Irina Provernaya, senior researcher at Trofimuk Institute of Geology and Petroleum Geology, the share of oil in the global energy mix has decreased from 46% in 1973 to 34% in 2025 and will continue to decrease due to the transition to clean energy with minimal carbon emissions and the expansion of renewable energies.

The press service of the institute quoted Provarnaya, who has a doctorate in economics, as saying that the focus of energy security has shifted from resource availability to logistical flexibility and economic compatibility. While oil will retain its importance, its role in the global energy mix will continue to decline under the influence of decarbonization and the development of renewable energies [such as solar, wind, and hydropower].

According to this expert, the global oil market has changed drastically over the past 50 years. In 1973, oil dominated the energy mix with a share of 46 percent, but by 2025 its share had declined to 34 percent, while the share of coal, gas, and renewable energy sources grew. The turning point was the oil shock of 1973, when Arab exporting countries cut off supplies, driving up prices. As a result, demand growth slowed to 7.8 percent per year from the pre-crisis rate, and subsequent market dynamics were shaped by geopolitical and economic factors.

The expert noted that after every major crisis, global oil consumption has reached a new baseline, lower than its previous level. "Once set in motion, processes such as energy conservation, fuel mix diversification and the reorientation of transport flows have a long-term impact and shape sustainable patterns of economic behavior.

Provarnaya added that today's oil market is defined by five groups of actors. The United States became the leading producer after the shale revolution, while the Middle East has maintained a central role in regulating the market. Russia, Canada, and China are maintaining stable production volumes through technological solutions and export reorientation, while Brazil, Guyana, and Nigeria have significantly strengthened their position.

Provernaya noted that the reliability of oil resources depends on the uninterrupted operation of key sea routes. Disruption in the Straits of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and Malacca, as well as the Suez Canal, will immediately affect global oil prices and transportation costs. The Strait of Hormuz alone accounts for nearly a fifth of global oil trade.