Why Is Saudi Arabia's Defeat in the Yemen War Certain?

Saudi Arabia's defeat in the Yemen war is certain. Beyond a cost-benefit analysis, a review of the war's objectives over the past 11 years leaves Riyadh with only one option.

The defeat of Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, in addition to examining the balance of costs and benefits, looking at the goals of the war over the past 11 years is certain and leaves only one option in front of Riyadh.

According to the report of Ambassador Arjan, quoted by the Ahed news site, more than 11 years have passed since Saudi Arabia's war-making in Yemen and the mobilization of regional and international coalitions, which was supposed to end in a few weeks; without these efforts leading to the realization of the declared goals.

The results of this war have largely been reversed for Saudi Arabia and its political and military deadlock has deepened and large financial resources have been spent on military expenses. These are in addition to the disastrous human, political and security consequences of the war, especially in the shadow of the continuation of the Saudi-American naval and air blockade on large parts of Yemen and the heavy burden of livelihood, health and the collapse of the value of the country's national currency.

Interestingly, some Saudi media who always defend their kingdom's policies in Yemen, now express their disappointment with the results of this war and blame the failure on the weak performance of the mercenary government of Aden. Naturally, these media ignore the direct role of Saudi Arabia in managing the war.

If we compare the amount of resources spent by Saudi Arabia in this war with its disastrous political and military results, we understand the depth of the impasse that Riyadh is facing and come to the conclusion that being involved in an endless crisis, without having a realistic idea of ending it, turns the war into a burden whose human, economic, political and security costs increase day by day, and on the other hand, the chances of exiting it with suitable conditions decrease. finds

Although there is no accurate statistics of the cost of the war in Yemen due to the ambiguity in the financial statements of Saudi Arabia, the costs of this war are definitely very high. In this regard, the American publication "Foreign Policy" has published a report that these costs have reached about 725 billion dollars by the end of 2019. The British publication "Times" has also estimated the costs of this war at around 200 million dollars per day.

Referring to the 6 wars that the former Yemeni regime waged against Ansarullah during the years 2004 to 2010, which strengthened and made Ansarullah's forces in Yemen more experienced, this article stated that it was these forces that were able to expand their presence in a number of northern provinces by taking advantage of the developments that the popular uprising against the Ali Abdullah Saleh regime in 2011 led to their entry into Sana'a and its control in September 2014.

Thus, over time, the movement that military power was used to destroy became one of the main sides of the Yemeni equation that cannot be ignored; Rather, it turned into a regional power that rushed to the aid of Gaza after the "Al-Aqsa storm" and in 2025, in a worthy way, engaged with the American naval fleet in the Red Sea.

Perhaps the most important lesson that can be learned from this point is that Saudi influence in Yemen is not maintained by military intervention and the continuation of the war may eventually become a source of threat to the interests of the intervening government. Therefore, the need for a comprehensive review of the policies adopted by Saudi Arabia towards Yemen seems very urgent, in the light of which respect for the sovereignty of Yemen and the search for a political solution to solve this crisis should be prioritized.