Orange Alert Issued but People Remain Unconcerned | Are Recent Floods Caused by El Niño?

Floods continue to dominate headlines in the northern provinces. Since the beginning of Mehr, four people have lost their lives in floods in Gilan Province alone. Are these floods the El Niño that had been forecast since the start of summer?

Flooding in the northern provinces continues to dominate. Since the beginning of October, only 4 people have lost their lives due to floods in Gilan province. Are these floods the El Nino that they promised at the beginning of summer?

Ambassador Arjan-Zahra Rafiei: The occurrence of floods in the northern provinces of the country has once again brought up the issue of changing rainfall patterns, the role of climate change and the preparation of cities against heavy rains. Nima Farid Mojtahedi, a meteorologist, referring to the prolongation of drought periods and the intensification of rains, says that the connection between the recent floods and the El Nino phenomenon has not yet been proven, and tampering with nature and improper management of water passages also play a role in the occurrence of damages.

In a conversation with Ambassador Arjan, he said: Since the beginning of October, 4 people have died in Golestan province due to flood and 3 people have died due to lightning. This year is one of the strongest El Niños recorded in history. But we should pay attention to several points about Iran. First, autumn rains in the northern provinces of the country are not a new phenomenon at this time of the year, and by the way, November is one of the rainiest months in these provinces. However, an important event that is less visible is climate change. Iran's climate has also changed like other parts of the world.

This meteorologist added: Iran's rainfall patterns have changed and drought periods have become longer. Instead of being uniform, the rainfalls have found a limit state; It means that our rains have become more intense. This issue has been proven in recent years in Iran, just as the warming of Iran has also been proven.

Referring to the role of heavy rains in the occurrence of floods, this meteorologist explained: Heavy rains themselves are the cause of floods, but tampering with nature and increasing construction in the flood path also play a role in this field. If we look at examples like Azima Karaj, we can see that the way roads and streets are built can be effective in the occurrence of problems caused by floods. If the street built in that area was not in line with the natural slope of the land and there was a suitable outlet for the water to go out, maybe it would not have happened.

He also said about the connection between recent floods and El Nino: El Nino has occurred, but it has not been proven that these floods are necessarily related to it. To be able to confirm such a connection in Iran, it is still too early and we do not have a complete knowledge of what is happening in the country. This phenomenon can lead to drought in some regions of the world and increase of rainfall in other regions.

Referring to the forecast of recent rains, Mojtahedi said: warnings had been given about this incident and the models had also talked about the rain wave and the volume of rains. The Meteorological Organization had also issued the necessary warnings.

Referring to the casualties caused by floods in urban areas, he added: One of the issues that has become a concern now is casualties in cities. Part of the problem is related to the citizens and another part to those who are responsible for making decisions and must manage the situation in a way that is compatible with the flood situation.

Advice to people during weather warnings

In the past, people were mostly advised to stay away from the banks of the rivers, but the published images of the recent floods show that these incidents also occur in urban areas, Mojtahedi said about the necessary advice to people who travel on the streets and not on the banks of the river: In my opinion, more attention should be paid to media information. When an orange warning is issued for a thunderstorm, people should take it seriously. It seems that people are careless! The danger of lightning is not limited to heights. It should not be assumed that only being on the top of the mountain or high areas is dangerous. Lightning also kills many people on the coast. In rice fields that have flat land, many women rice farmers have died due to lightning. But unfortunately, they do not take this matter seriously and think that such an incident will not happen to them. Thunder does not know the city and the village, the mountains and the plains.