Why can neither the Strait of Hormuz nor negotiations alone end the war?

It appears that some people inside the country are busy erasing the problem by fantasizing about Hormuz as a trump card and the opposing side being tied down. / No guarantee, from closing the Strait of Hormuz and withdrawing from the NPT to building a bomb, can by itself stop the war. This war will end when the fragmentation and sense of disillusionment among Iranian citizens of all social classes are healed.

Navid Hosseinyoun wrote in Sazendagi newspaper:

During the past 7 months, the Iranian society has suffered economic pressure equal to the days of the end of World War II and the occupation of Iran by the Allies; The pressure imposed on Iranians due to war, sanctions and ineffective economic and political policies. The country's economic growth has reached negative 10%; This means that the country's economic cake has become 10% smaller during this period.

The latest official data make the situation even worse. In August 1405, monthly inflation reached 3.4%, point-to-point inflation reached 89%, and annual average inflation reached 69.9%. The point-to-point inflation of food and beverages was about 127.5% and the annual inflation of the second decile was 78.3%. The working capital of companies, the purchasing power of households and the financial power of the government are eroding. Instead of making policies in the war situation, the political system has taken refuge in everyday life and does not show a clear vision for the difficult days ahead. On the other hand, the conditions of war are becoming more complicated day by day.

After the Islamabad Memorandum, the parties have turned to a limited confrontation with military and economic pressure. By intensifying the naval blockade and pressuring the countries of the region for air blockade, America is trying to weaken the will of the Iranian side. In Iran, some people with a one-dimensional view of the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz think that by leveraging Hormuz and putting pressure on Bab al-Mandab, they can punish the countries of the region, limit Trump, and make Netanyahu regret his demands.

The current war can be called the war of bottlenecks. The largest oil export disruption in history, with the failure to export more than 20 million barrels of crude oil per day and the disruption in the export of gas, petrochemical products, helium and chemical fertilizers, has extended the scope of the war beyond military operations and has affected the economic and social dimensions of different countries. The strategic importance of Hormuz has made the countries of the region, the world powers and the buyers of energy and products of the region take a stand against the existing conditions and try to influence the war.

The most important factor for measuring the impact of war is the macroeconomic indicators of the countries of the world such as GDP, inflation, excess supply and demand, scarcity, value chain price and interest rate. After 7 months, the markets have been able to adapt to the current situation with the experience of the war in Ukraine and the Corona crisis, and most countries, except Iran, Iraq and Qatar, have experienced economic growth.

Now the uncertainty of the energy supply situation has the greatest impact on the market. Free markets regulate their critical conditions with supply and demand; Just as China, as a major energy consumer, kept the price of crude oil balanced by managing demand and did not let it exceed $120 per barrel at the height of the crisis. Let's not forget that the main player on one side of this American war is the first world economy, and the aggressor cannot be stopped with shallow analyzes of inflationary pressure, an increase in the American interest rate, or the downing of a few drones. News such as Trump's acceptance of Netanyahu's influence, his and his people's business of war, and the increase in fuel prices in the United States, although true, are not enough leverage to stop this cruel war. Certainly, the world, even if it hates Trump, will have to choose between the sides of the war in the next few months. It seems that some people inside the country are busy erasing the issue by dreaming about Hormuz's winning card and the other side's hands being tied.

The attack on Iran and the current war was justified when the belligerent side was sure of the fragility of the country's economy and social crisis. The solution to get out of the current crisis is not only military and defense, but to return to solving internal issues. The country's decision-making system should change domestic macro policies sooner in the face of economic problems and social crises caused by imprudence.

Until people are assured of clear changes in social and economic policies, neither war nor negotiation will have a preventive effect.

From closing the Strait of Hormuz and withdrawing from the NPT to building bombs, no guarantee alone can stop the war. This war will stop when the fragmentation and sense of disillusionment of Iranian citizens, from every social class, is healed.