Analysts Weigh the Impact of US Inflation on Bitcoin

Your Daily Outlook for October 14, 2026

US inflation rate at 8:30 AM ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones estimated that the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in September and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2 percent from August and 2.5 percent annually.

The numbers are widely scrutinized for clues about how the Fed will react with interest rates. For Bitcoin, the focus will be less on the headline number alone and more on how the report reshapes expectations for Fed interest rate policy.

Here's what analysts see in this report on Bitcoin.

Lee said the recent selloff has reduced bitcoin's leverage, but may not have completely erased the market's risky bets. In other words, traders may still have significant leveraged positions, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to another cascade of forced selling if yields rise and rate cut expectations recede.

Utkarsh Ahuja, Founder and Managing Partner, Moon Pursuit Capital;

Ahuja said investors should be cautious about whether the Fed can ease policy as quickly as markets want. He will watch underlying inflation figures alongside the bond market's reaction, noting that a softer reading could support improving risk appetite.

Beyond the CPI, analysts also track ETF flows and oil price volatility for further clues as to where risk appetite and Bitcoin will go in the future. Be alert!

The chart shows the daily volatility of the price of WTI crude oil on the Nymax index.

Oil has bounced out of the uptrend line from the July low, reinforcing a broader uptrend.

On the upside, the psychological level of $100 and the September 15 high of $106.75 are key numbers to watch. A rise to these levels could add to inflationary concerns and potentially impact risk assets.

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