The amount of oil production in the shadow of the sea blockade

According to international statistics, Iran's oil production in August and early September of this year has decreased by 35-36% compared to the same period last year. The decline occurred at the same time as the sea blockade returned and oil exports were limited.

The research arm of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran has provided an estimate of the changes in the gross domestic product in August in the report "Current Forecasting of the Activity Index of Different Sectors of the Iranian Economy".

According to the report of the Economic World, the Central Bank's research arm in this report estimated Iran's economic growth in the three months ending August 1405 at a negative 5.9%; A figure that indicates the continuation of negative growth, but the reduction of the severity of the economic recession.

Economic growth in July was estimated to be negative 5.6%. In this way, for the second consecutive period after the war, the economic growth was in the negative range of 5%.

In the meantime, the return of the maritime blockade at the end of July, by limiting the export of oil, led to a 27.4% drop in the added value of the oil sector. According to international statistics, oil production in August decreased by 35-36% compared to the same period last year. This process was one of the most important factors for the continued negative growth of the economy.

However, the severity of the recession in the services and industries and mines sectors decreased compared to spring; An issue that can be a sign of the relative recovery of economic activity after the shocks caused by the war.

The performance of services, industries, and mines sectors in the quarter ending August 1405 indicates the reduction of the severity of the recession and the relative improvement of economic activities. Although the growth of the activity index of both sectors is still in the negative range, the comparison of recent statistics with previous periods shows that the trend of decline in activities in the services, industries, and mines sector has moderated to some extent.

In the service sector, the growth of the activity index, which reached negative 7.8% in the spring of 1405, increased to negative 3.7% in the quarter ending in August. This change shows that the severity of the contraction of service activities has decreased.

In the industries and mines sector, although the activity index in the quarter ending in August decreased by 8% compared to the same period of the previous year, the severity of the decrease was less than in the previous periods.

Estimates show that the activity of the oil sector in the quarter ending in August 1405 has faced a greater drop than in spring. The growth of this sector's activity index in this period is estimated to be negative 27.4%, while this figure was negative 17.6% in spring.

One of the aggravating factors of this trend is the return of the maritime blockade in late July, which further reduced oil production by restricting oil exports.

According to the statistics of the US Energy Information Administration and OPEC, Iran's crude oil production in August 2026 (August and early September) was about 35-36% less than the same period last year. While the average drop in production in June and July (mid-June to early August) was reported to be around 15%.

Despite the continuation of negative growth, the estimate of GDP growth in the quarter ending in August 1405 was -5.9%, which, compared to the negative growth of 12.1% in spring, indicates a decrease in the severity of the recession in economic activities.