Bessent's Two-Week Plan to Collapse Iran's Economy Officially Fails / Dual-Fuel Smuggler

Bessent's plan also lasted two weeks. The various sanctions have led to Iran's adaptation and resilience, and each new round brings a major shock, but they are still not enough to bring Iran to its knees.

According to Arjan's ambassador, Scott Bessant, the US Treasury Secretary, had set a two-week deadline for Iran's economic collapse, which ended, but that did not happen. Bessant hoped that the months of naval blockade had taken their toll and that, in conjunction with the shocking implementation of the air blockade and raising the possibility of a resumption of war, the economy would reach a point where internal rebellion would occur. This idea has become a widespread thought in America that sanctions are more effective than war, because the war was also supposed to bring the rebels to the streets, which did not happen, but if the foreign agent is removed from the field, the rebels can appear in the field more easily without being directly accused of collaborating with the enemy.

According to the idea of the enemy, in the absence of foreign attack, the motivation of the defenders of the country subsides and, conversely, their economic pressure becomes passive. On the other hand, the rebels, who were accused of being dependent on foreign countries, are limited and alone, this time they find the power to maneuver and support by claiming livelihood issues. These were all assumptions that had their roots in some issues, including the apparently previous basic livelihood revolts, and including the events of January 1404.

The enemy hoped that just as the losses of the 12-day war led to the events of January with the subsequent pressures and saving of dollars to bear the pressures of the upcoming war, the said process would be repeated this time as well. But the enemy deliberately did not see the necessary details. Were the protests of January 1404 strong or were they scattered and sporadic? On 18 and 19 January, was the amount of support from the people significant, or did the small number of rebels cause a change in the type of action? The truth on January 18th and 19th was that the enemy, estimating that the number of people joining the rebellion was small, tried to use it as a basis for a suicide coup plot so that the incident did not go unnoticed. On January 18, the rebels attacked 749 police stations, which made up one-fifth of the country's police stations, in order to upset the balance of the security situation inside. If the enemy is waiting for the 18th of December, he should also calculate the effect of the 12-day war on the divergence of people from internal rebellions and review why few rebels committed suicide.

In the current situation, the main squares and streets are under the control of the revolutionaries and the people, who strengthen their presence when there are signs of escalation. If the enemy was hoping that the streets would be empty after the opening of schools and the cold weather, it is not bad to consider the events of March last year, when despite the cold weather and the continuation of education, the streets were filled with people. They are still present on the street today. Basant's deadline has ended to prove that his timings are not worth a single cent.

Regarding the defeat of the enemy's plan, the following points are important.

1. Sanctioning Iran creates changes that are not necessarily all calculable and it is not clear that they will benefit America. The imposition of various sanctions has led to Iran's compliance and adaptation, and for each new round, a lot of shock is embedded, but they are not enough to bring it to its knees.

2. The origin of the previous sanctions was the establishment of domestic laws and their global application, but the current issue is the implementation of a naval blockade with weapons. In the previous round, paths were created to bypass the legal laws with various measures, but now, with the difficulty of circumventing the naval blockade, Iran will probably go towards the final solution in the field of weapon modification and improvement. These cases have benefits for America, but the losses are also significant.

3. The open attack of the infamous Zionist regime and the United States has increased Iranian nationalism with all its characteristics, and this in turn is the factor of increasing spiritual resilience. When mental resilience increases, all kinds of pressures must register a new ceiling for effectiveness, which are sometimes impossible and with high consequences. This resilience has increased in various aspects. One case is the emergence of war, in case of failure, a shaky political system and the disintegration of the country will occur, and therefore the tolerance of difficulties for not realizing this ominous goal of the enemy will increase.

The second case is the integration of the enemy in terms of civilization. By showing the depth of hatred and enmity, this case improves the ability to bear. The third thing is the interweaving of the Shia culture with the martyrdom of the leaders, which gives it a strange power. The repetition of the Muharram and Ashura ceremonies every year is a symbol of this matter. The enemy has a difficult task ahead of him with the assassinations and the similarities he creates between current and past events.

4. Along with resilience and in a separate field, the enemy's effective tools are slowing down. Each policy has a series of advantages and limitations. When the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about the civilizational war between the West and the Iranian civilization and called the Achaemenians robbers, he tried to unite the Western community for the war, but on the other hand, by smashing the slogans and symbols of some opposing groups, he pushed them aside and placed them against him. The enemy has accomplished two things with his actions; Limiting the maneuvering space of the rebels and secondly, the reconsideration of a part of the opponents. The limitation of the room for maneuver of the rebels is that in each round of internal inflammations, fewer people come to the field and use more violence, which results in more people's distance from them. Also, the opponents, either due to intellectual conflict or due to pragmatism, turn their backs after siding with the enemy who has come to open war in their country.

5. Inside Iran, no one feels defeated. Everyone knows that Iran has received blows from the world's top power and its wealthy allies, and of course it has dealt decisive blows to them and has achievements. Regionalization of the war, damage to the defense network, devastating attacks on the infrastructure, precise attacks on the hiding places of officers in safe houses and hotels, which required real-time information and accurate weapons with low damage, together with the domination of the Strait of Hormuz, made the Iranians feel the sweet feeling of victory in an important war. A deep understanding of the danger that existed and continues, along with the fruit of sustainability that they have tasted, has made the society more resilient.

6. Parallel to the economic pressure on Iran, people, nations and observers are observing complex crises in the world and the Western community. The crisis in the interest rate of bonds that increases the cost of borrowing, rising inflation while borrowing and national debt are high, high diesel prices and drastic changes in the profit margin of businesses, along with the political effects that can lead to Trump's defeat in the mid-term congressional elections, have revealed to everyone that there is a war of resilience between the parties, even in a situation where there is economic inequality between the two sides.

Trump's successive plans in the field of diesel, which take place in a wide geographical area, show his confusion and narrowness. Talking about the existence of a 90-day ban on diesel exports from the United States, the announcement of France's consent to release 10 million barrels of diesel from its strategic reserves, and an agreement with Russia to send new shipments to the market, Trump's three major actions are.

Experts believe that the maximum power of the American president will not have a special effect on the market. The 90-day plan to ban exports was more of a threat to the world, because the US is one of the biggest exporters of diesel, this could lead to a global price increase. This ban by itself did not have much effect on the price reduction in the US. The problem of the US domestic diesel market is not the shortage, but the effect of global prices. Therefore, the plan to ban exports did not affect the prices, but by creating a shortage in the world market, it could even lead to a re-growth of prices inside.

France is set to release 10 million barrels of diesel, which will reduce prices slightly by 0.12 to 0.14 euros. The agreement with Russia is worse than France. The Russians have damaged their refineries and turned from an exporter to an importer during 6 months of continuous Ukrainian operations. The Ukrainians have targeted about half of Russia's refineries, though that doesn't mean the total destruction of a refinery. There is doubt about what the Russians are going to inject into the market, and if they are injected, the amount will be very small. It seems that Trump wanted more than anything else with this agreement to stop Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, because if they continued, the Russians would have to import more diesel from the world market, which would raise prices.

The plan to ban the export of American diesel for 90 days does not have a logic to reduce the domestic price, which if Trump would have implemented it quickly. The negotiations with France were more likely to be in line with the decision of Paris than to meet America's demands. In Europe, the main fuel is diesel and its consumption is up to 2.5 times that of gasoline. Being affected by the country's internal stability was the main factor behind France's move, and Trump probably tried to slightly increase the released amounts and link the reason for doing so to his negotiations.

Gasoil is only one branch of the crises that the world and Trump are facing. Gas shortage is another area. Qatar's gas exports have decreased by 96%. 17% of its production capacity was lost in the war and its restoration will take three to five years if the conflicts end.

7. Enemy's encirclement plan is faced with the mutual encirclement of America's allies and they are in a more dangerous situation. Saudi Arabia, America's largest and most important ally, is relatively surrounded by sea and air and is facing the erosion of infrastructure, military forces and the prospect of internal instability.

8. The enemy's plans are to destroy the strike, which was experienced in the 12-day war, the 18-day war, and the 40-day war. Besnet's plan was also for two weeks. That such actions failed is a great victory, but one should think about repeating these plans. This was the fourth demolition plan in less than two years.