Annual Dementia Cases Worldwide to More Than Double by 2050

Results of a major international study show that the number of people worldwide who develop dementia each year could rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to more than double, reaching 24.7 million by 2050.

According to the results of a large international study, the number of people diagnosed with dementia (dementia) worldwide each year may increase from 11.4 million people in 2023 to more than double that is 24.7 million people by 2050.

According to Safir Arjan, this study, which was published in JAMA Neurology, analyzed the individual data of 38,418 participants from 22 population-based studies in 18 countries and territories on six continents.

Out of a total of more than 287 thousand "person-years" of monitoring and follow-up, 3001 of the participants were diagnosed with dementia. The researchers calculated a global "incidence" rate (standardized by age and gender) of 9.7 new cases per 1,000 person-years.

According to this study, the "incidence" index indicates the rate of occurrence of new cases and is different from the "prevalence" index; Prevalence refers to the total number of people currently living with a particular disease or condition.

After considering age differences by experts, the incidence rate among women was estimated at 10.6 cases per 1000 person-years and among men at 8.6 cases per 1000 person-years.

Also, according to Anatoly's report, the difference between countries with different income levels was more significant, so that in low-income and middle-income countries, 13.6 cases were recorded per 1,000 person-years, while this figure was 8.3 cases for high-income countries.

"For the first time, we can compare the incidence of dementia in geographically diverse population groups using a single statistical method," said lead author Ashley Vella of the Center for Healthy Brain Aging at the University of New South Wales in Australia. This gives us a clearer picture of the places and groups where new cases of the disease are occurring.

He added: The remarkable thing is that the incidence of dementia does not have the same distribution. We see higher rates among women as well as in low- and middle-income countries.

A forecast of 24.7 million new cases in 2050 was calculated by applying age- and sex-specific incidence rates (taken from this study) to projected population statistics. These calculations are based on the assumption that incidence rates remain constant; This means that the predicted increase is mainly due to population growth and aging phenomenon.

Experts say the findings could help governments predict future needs for diagnosis, treatment, long-term care and support services, especially in resource-constrained countries that have previously been underrepresented in dementia studies.

Dementia currently affects more than 57 million people worldwide, while previous research has predicted that the number of people with the condition may reach 150 million by 2050.

Henry Brodati, one of the other authors of the study, said that the occurrence of 24 million new cases every year will put a huge strain on individuals, families, health systems and economies around the world.

"An aging population means we can't just wait for people to develop dementia and then react," he said, calling for measures to reduce modifiable risk factors, identify those at risk early and improve the processes of diagnosis, treatment and care.

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