How did China turn development into a national strategy? / From the strategic partnership of Iran and China to the important question of economic achievements

Iran-China relations have a history of more than five decades, and in recent years, under the title of "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" and the 25-year cooperation plan, it has become more important. However, the gap between political agreement and economic achievement still needs careful assessment.

Ali Hashemi: In the past few decades, China has turned from a mainly agricultural economy into one of the great industrial and commercial powers of the world; Not with a temporary decision or relying on a foreign partner, but through continuous reforms, infrastructure development, attracting capital and technology, expanding exports and strengthening domestic production. This experience creates a fundamental question for Iran: How can foreign relations and political agreements be transformed into production, employment, technology transfer and sustainable growth?

China's experience; Development with continuous improvement:

Since 1978, China started economic reforms and open door policy. The development of special economic zones, attracting foreign capital, expansion of exports and investment in infrastructure, made it possible to use the global market to strengthen domestic capacities. According to the World Bank report, the extreme poverty rate in China, based on the international poverty line of the World Bank, went from about 88% in 1981 to less than 1% in 2018; The World Bank estimates this process as the exit of nearly 800 million people from extreme poverty. However, the World Bank states that the definition of poverty, the baseline and the calculation method affect the final estimate, and this figure should not be generalized to all forms of poverty without a methodological explanation. [1]

Of course, this path has not been without problems. Regional inequality, debt, housing market problems and low returns on some investments show that even successful economies need continuous reform. The main lesson for Iran is not to imitate China's political or economic model; Rather, it is to pay attention to an approach that measures policies with real results and corrects the path if a problem occurs. China benefited from capital, technology and the global market, but did not replace them with domestic production capacity.

strategic partnership; A title that must be weighed with results

Diplomatic relations between Iran and China were established in 1350. In 2014, Xi Jinping's visit to Tehran led to the announcement of a comprehensive strategic partnership, and in 1400, a 25-year comprehensive cooperation plan was signed between the two countries. [2][3]

These documents show the political importance of the relationship; But the political agreement, definitive contract, financing, start of operation and economic exploitation are different stages. Announcing cooperation in a field does not necessarily mean investment or completion of the project.

To evaluate the 25-year plan, it should be clear how many projects have been signed, how much investment has been realized, how financial resources have been provided, and what results have been achieved in production, employment and technology. In the absence of a comprehensive and verifiable report, neither the announcement of the definite success of the program nor the general judgment about its failure has sufficient support.

decrease in trade; A sign of failure or a warning?

Based on data from the official database of China Customs, the value of registered goods trade between China and Iran has increased from about 13.37 billion dollars in 2024 to about 9.96 billion dollars in 2025; It means a decrease of approximately 3.41 billion dollars or 25.6%. This calculation is derived from the formula ((13.37-9.96) ÷ 13.37x100) and is based on the nominal dollar value of the trade, not the physical volume of the commodity or the real value adjusted for inflation. In the same dataset, China's registered exports to Iran are reported to be around 6.93 billion dollars and China's imports from Iran are reported to be around 3.03 billion dollars. [4]

These figures should be read with some caution. First, the year 2025 is considered in this text as a calendar year based on the data published in the Chinese customs database; Therefore, it should be checked whether the final data is annual or from the monthly sum, and whether all months and subsequent corrections are included at the time of use. Second, bilateral trade figures on both sides may not be exactly the same due to differences in transaction time registration, valuation, shipping and insurance costs, commodity classification, transit route, and origin or destination country registration. Third, the year-to-year comparison with the current dollar does not separate the effect of changes in oil prices, exchange rates, and commodity mix from the actual volume of trade.

Also, China's customs statistics do not necessarily show all Iranian oil exchanges with its real origin. Under embargo conditions, some of the oil and products may be traded through intermediaries, exchange of documents, ship-to-ship transfer or registration in other jurisdictions.

Therefore, China's customs data are suitable for measuring registered goods trade, but they are not a perfect indicator for measuring Iran's total oil income, trade in services, informal exchanges, clearing, or foreign direct investment. For a more complete picture, these data should be compared with Iran's customs statistics, UN Comtrade data, balance of payments reports, transport statistics and independent estimates on oil exports. [4][5]

Therefore, the figure of 9.96 billion dollars for 2025 should not be considered as equivalent to "total economic relations between Iran and China". This figure, to the extent recorded in the official customs source, is the sum of the value of China's exports to Iran and China's imports from Iran; Not an estimate of all financial and business flows. However, the decrease recorded in this index raises a serious question: why the relationship described as "strategic" at the political level has not necessarily led to an increase in economic exchanges?

Sanctions, financial restrictions, market conditions, and the mix of traded goods can be effective, but the exact answer requires more comprehensive investigation. Declining business in one year alone is not a sign of relationship failure; Just as the title of strategic partnership should not prevent a realistic assessment of its economic performance.

Opportunities for cooperation and its limitations:

China can be an important partner for Iran in energy, transportation, industrial infrastructure, equipment, automation and new technologies, and its market is important for the sale of Iranian oil. However, economic benefit does not depend only on the volume of transactions or the nominal value of contracts.

In the field of energy, it should be seen to what extent the export income leads to productive investment and increased productivity. In infrastructure projects, real need, maintenance cost, economic efficiency and effect on production cost reduction should be the criteria of success. In technological cooperation, the purchase of equipment is different from the transfer of technology.

If the contracts do not guarantee the training of manpower, the participation of domestic manufacturers, access to technical knowledge and the possibility of product development, dependence on foreign suppliers will continue, without strengthening the country's technological and production capacity. Cooperation with China becomes a sustainable advantage when it helps to increase production capacity, develop exports, strengthen domestic companies and expand Iranian markets; Not to be limited to selling raw materials and importing goods.

The competition of great powers is no longer based only on the size of the economy or military power; Technology, energy, digital infrastructure, supply chains and access to capital are also decisive. Artificial intelligence competition is a clear example of this evolution. The development of data centers and computing infrastructures requires stable electricity, communication network, advanced equipment and expert manpower. Energy resources alone do not make a country a technological power and must be accompanied by investment, know-how and appropriate infrastructure.

For Iran, this development is both an opportunity and a warning. Cooperation with China can contribute to the development of energy and technology infrastructure, but it is only effective if the projects are transparent, justified and accompanied by domestic capacity building. China and Russia, like other countries, make decisions based on their national interests and economic calculations. Political proximity alone does not eliminate financial, commercial and strategic limitations.

Therefore, foreign policy helps development when it increases Iran's power of choice, diversifies export markets, and provides access to technology and capital. The realization of this goal also depends on the quality of internal governance: the stability of regulations, implementation of contracts, healthy competition, support for innovation and the possibility of independent evaluation play a decisive role in turning opportunities into results.

In order for cooperation with China to reach an economic result from the level of political agreement, several main priorities must be followed:

1- Converting agreements into measurable projects: All collaborations must have a timetable, specific financial resources and clear indicators for real investment, physical development, employment, technology transfer, participation of domestic manufacturers and impact on exports.

2- Establishing a transparent evaluation and accountability system: a public and verifiable system should periodically publish information on contracts, financial resources, implementation status, costs, and economic results. Managers' performance should also be measured based on projects that have been put into operation, realized investment, transferred technology, sustainable employment, productivity and exports; Not the number of memorandums and the nominal value of the contracts.

3- Linking foreign cooperation with domestic capacity: the share of domestic production, training of manpower, transfer of technical knowledge, access to data and the possibility of manufacturing or developing products in Iran should be turned into legal and trackable obligations so that cooperation leads to the strengthening of Iranian companies, not just the purchase of goods and equipment.

4- Giving priority to productive projects and reforming governance: before choosing each project, an independent evaluation of cost-benefit, real need, economic efficiency, maintenance cost and environmental effects should be done. Resources from oil and foreign cooperation should also be allocated to energy infrastructure, transportation, digital network, research and development, and industrial chains. At the same time, regulatory stability, predictable execution of contracts, reduction of sudden decisions, healthy competition and anti-monopoly should be pursued.

5- Maintaining diversity in foreign relations: The relationship with China should be part of the policy of diversifying foreign relations, not its replacement. By maintaining strategic cooperation with China, Iran should diversify its markets and business partners in order to have more bargaining power and more choice.

The relationship between Iran and China has important capacities in energy, infrastructure, industry, technology and regional trade; But the title of "strategic partnership" alone does not guarantee the expansion of exchanges or the realization of development goals. The decline in recorded commodity trade in 2025, based on China's customs data and given the limitations of statistical coverage, sanctions, the possibility of incomplete or indirect recording of oil trade, and the effect of prices, should be a wake-up call for a more careful assessment, not a basis for hasty judgment.

China's lesson for Iran is not to become Chinese; Learning is the art of correction. Foreign cooperation contributes to development when agreements achieve measurable results, capital is converted into productive output, and technology increases the competitiveness of the domestic economy. Successful governance is not error-free governance; It is governance that honestly measures results, recognizes errors in time, and corrects its course before opportunities are lost.

[1] World Bank, "China Overview" and World Bank DataBank, poverty index based on international poverty line; Also: World Bank and Development Research Center of the State Council, Four Decades of Poverty Reduction in China: Drivers, Insights for the World, and the Way Ahead, 2022.

[2] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, "Joint Statement on Establishing a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Iran," 23 January 2016.

[3] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, text of "Comprehensive Cooperation Program of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People's Republic of China", March 27, 2021; Persian version published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

[4] General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China Customs Statistics, China and Iran merchandise trade data for the years 2024 and 2025, based on the dollar value of registered exports and imports.

[5] United Nations Statistics Division, UN Comtrade Database, Iran-China commodity trade data; To compare and cross-check customs data, considering possible differences in origin, destination, time and valuation records.