War on Iran, deal with Russia and elections: Trump searching for a way out

The U.S. president has activated a set of urgent measures to curb the surge in fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections: pressuring allies to release strategic reserves, permitting the use of dyed diesel on roads and, most importantly, a deal with Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets. However, senior energy market analysts say these measures will bring at best a few weeks of relative calm, and

According to Ambassador Arjan, US President Donald Trump is facing an unprecedented crisis of fuel price jumps in the United States on the eve of the mid-term elections on November 12. The White House is now trying to hide the economic consequences of the military aggression against Iran and the blockage of the Hormuz energy highway from public opinion by putting the burden of inflation on the shoulders of the war in Ukraine.

According to Ambassador Arjan, last week in a message on the True Social network, Trump repeated his false claims about America's control over the Strait of Hormuz and wrote: "What is raising the price of gasoline now is not the Strait of Hormuz anymore; Because today an unprecedented number of barrels pass through it almost every day. The issue is refineries: Russian refineries are being blown up by Ukraine, and our refineries are being shut down by Democrats in Democratic states like California."

Trump's announcement on Friday of an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to sell Russian-produced diesel to the United States was also part of the White House's propaganda program to mitigate the consequences of military aggression against Iran. However, analysts say that the root of the fuel price crisis in the US is not a gasoline tax or a short-term shortage of a shipment, but a widespread disruption in the global chain of refined products; The disorder that arose from the military aggression of America and Israel to Iran, the insecurity caused by this campaign in the Strait of Hormuz and its simultaneous with the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the president of Ukraine, also stated the same point in an interview with ABC News in a clear tone: "When everyone in the world understands that prices will rise because of the Middle East war, prices will rise; Because of the Middle East war, the blockade of Hormuz and these reasons. Everyone understands that." He emphasized: "If we want to talk to people fairly, if we want to be transparent and talk honestly with our nations, people should hear the truth." Don't play with people."

How did the military aggression against Iran take the energy market hostage?

The price of diesel in America has increased by about 70% since the beginning of the military aggression of America and Israel with Iran. According to Reuters, the average price of diesel reached $6.28 per gallon on October 16; A figure close to the historical record. This fuel is the backbone of America's transportation of goods, agriculture and logistics, and its price increase is quickly transferred to the price of food, online store goods and the cost of living for households.

According to the Associated Press, the national average price of diesel reached a historical record of $6.53 per gallon on September 22; While this figure was around 3.68 dollars a year ago. The jump has spread inflationary pressures throughout the U.S. economy and has been especially costly for farmers, truckers and rural residents, a traditional Republican base.

But what distinguishes this crisis from a normal fluctuation of the energy market is the military aggression of America and Israel against Iran. The continuation of this war has disrupted the security of the Strait of Hormuz, limited the flow of oil and refined products from the Persian Gulf, and the global diesel market has faced a shortage that cannot be compensated by a shipment from Russia or by the temporary release of reserves.

The Strait of Hormuz is not only a sea route; It is the main artery of transporting oil and refined products from the Persian Gulf to the world markets. Before the joint US-Israeli military aggression against Iran, about 10% of the world's diesel (in total about 21% of crude oil and oil products trade) passed through the Strait of Hormuz. But this amount has decreased significantly since the beginning of the war. According to Reuters, attacks on oil tankers in recent weeks had reached the highest level since the beginning of the Iran war. This insecurity has disrupted the flow of oil and refined products from the Persian Gulf, and Europe, which used to import more than half a million barrels of diesel daily from the Persian Gulf and has stopped energy trade with Russia for 4 years, has faced a serious shortage.

Daniel Sternoff, a senior research fellow at Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, says a large portion of the Middle East's refining capacity is out of reach of the world market due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, "exports of refined products such as diesel are still less than half of their pre-war levels." So even if Russia were to put some extra diesel into the market, it might heal prices in the US a bit, but not lower them substantially.

This economic pressure has intensified right on the eve of mid-term elections on November 12 (November 3). The Reuters/Ipsos poll found the cost of living and inflation to be voters' top concerns, with Trump's approval rating at 32 percent, the lowest level recorded for him during his two terms in office.

The recent actions of the Trump administration sent a clear message aimed at extinguishing the fire of voter anger: the administration is "taking action". But the main question is whether these measures, without solving the root of the crisis and ending the war with Iran, will create a real change in the American economy, or are they a means to buy time to get through the election season?

Trump's narrative and inability to tell the truth

On Saturday, Trump described the oil agreement with Russia as a "big deal" and the arrival of "huge amounts of oil" in the United States, and thanked Putin. At the same time, he blamed Zelensky for the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war and said, "It's time for Ukraine to have a new president."

But this narrative is far from the reality of the energy market. Trump tries to tie the fuel price crisis to the agreement with Putin and blame Zelensky; While analysts and market data consider the main factor to be disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, damage to refining capacity and war in the Middle East. If the cause is wrongly introduced, the treatment prescription will also be wrong. Buying diesel from Russia may be a propaganda message, but it does not solve the main problem, which is the disruption of the Persian Gulf energy flow.

Joseph Webster, an energy and geopolitical analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank, in response to the Axios news site, emphasizes that Putin and his supporters are trying to make the main cause of the crisis appear to be Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries; While more serious damage to the global fuel market has come from the US-Iran war and the disturbance in the Persian Gulf.

Instead of ending the war, the White House buys time

In this situation, instead of stopping the war and restoring security to the energy routes of the Persian Gulf, the White House has activated a series of interim measures to manage the fuel market. The first step was to pressure the allies to release strategic reserves. The Group of Seven agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and oil products within four months; Emphasizing the "significant" supply of diesel in the first 20 days.

On the face of it, that's a big package, but Reuters reports that the bulk of the 100 million barrels appears to cover the rest of the IEA members' 400 million barrel emergency program from March, not entirely new supply. Releasing reserves can ease short-term pressure, but it reduces reserves and does not create new production or refining capacity. In other words, countries are consuming part of their safety shield against future crises and the ongoing crisis of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

The second measure is an executive order to allow the use of red or dyed diesel on public roads until the end of the year. The fuel is chemically the same as regular diesel, but its color indicates that it is exempt from the federal road tax of 24.4 cents per gallon. The White House hopes the measure will save truckers and farmers. But Reuters reports that the reception of this fuel has been limited; Because big sellers are wary of tax liability, logistical hurdles, and the risk of fines for trucking across state lines. John Tirado, president of commercial fuel supply company Soma Energy, described the plan as "a Band-Aid on a much bigger problem."

In an interview with Reuters, Caspian Conran, the chief economist of the Baringa consulting company, says that the fundamental problem of America is "not taxes, but the extraordinary market under the pressure of refined products at the global level"; A market that is affected by the disruption of energy flows from the Middle East and the reduction of refining production in other parts of the world. According to him, these measures are short-term steps before the elections and may provide "a few weeks of calm", not a lasting solution.

Putin's agreement: a symbol of the crisis not being cured

The third and most significant action of Trump was the agreement with Putin to supply Russian diesel. On Friday, October 17, Trump announced that he had reached an agreement with Putin that Russia would "immediately" supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the American and world markets. According to his announcement, another 500,000 tons will be supplied in November and then an additional 4 million tons.

This decision is a significant turn from the point of view of American foreign policy. Since the beginning of Russia's war in Ukraine, Washington has banned the import of Russian oil and for years has tried to limit Moscow's financial resources by imposing an energy embargo. Now, in order to reduce domestic fuel prices, the White House has opened the way for Russian diesel to enter, at least temporarily.

The US Treasury Department has also issued a temporary license for trading and importing Russian diesel, which is valid until April next year. Simply put, the policy that was designed to put pressure on Russia and end the war in Ukraine has now been suspended to contain the internal crisis caused by the continued military aggression of the US and Israel against Iran.

But the economic effect of this agreement, based on independent calculations, is very limited. 300,000 tons of diesel is approximately equivalent to 2.25 million barrels. The Atlantic writes that this volume is equivalent to about 16 hours of US diesel consumption, 10 hours of its production, or 14 days of diesel imports from Canada. America itself is one of the largest producers and exporters of diesel in the world. US refineries produce about 5.2 million barrels of diesel per day, while domestic consumption is about 3.7 million barrels and the excess is exported. Therefore, Washington's problem is not the absolute lack of production capacity; Rather, it is a disruption in the global market, the security of sea lanes and the refining chain.

"It's more like moving the seats on the deck of the Titanic," said Michael Lynch, a senior researcher at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, in an interview with ABC News, comparing the US fuel market to the sinking Titanic. According to him, if America buys diesel from Russia, Russia's former customers will have to source from other markets, and as a result, the world price will remain almost at the same level. Lynch emphasizes that the best possible scenario is a small, localized price reduction in areas like New York-New Jersey or perhaps Philadelphia; Not a global and sustained reduction in prices in the US or the world market.

Clayton Siegel, an energy strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Fortune that the deal probably won't significantly lower prices in the U.S. or Europe, but "it will certainly take Moscow out of the revenue squeeze." At the same time, he notes that Russia is trying to replace its remaining summer diesel with the heavier winter and polar fuels it will need in the coming months, ahead of the cold season. This means that the deal is not only a source of income for the Kremlin, but also helps Moscow manage its domestic supply cycle.

The agreement with Putin may relieve some of the pressure on the diesel market for a few weeks, but it will not secure the Strait of Hormuz, restore the refining capacity of the Persian Gulf, or end the war that is at the root of the crisis. In other words, by buying fuel from Moscow, Washington temporarily removes the political cost of the war with Iran from the shoulder of the American consumer, but continues the war itself.

The incurable root: Hormuz, Palash and two wars

The current crisis cannot be solved with just one shipment of Russian diesel or an executive order, because it has three interconnected layers:

Strait of Hormuz: The continuation of US and Israeli military aggression against Iran has intensified the attacks on oil tankers and disruption of the flow of oil and refined products from the Persian Gulf. As long as this situation persists, each shipment of Russian diesel or barrel of oil released from reserves will cover only part of the huge supply shortfall.

Refining capacity: Diesel is not just crude oil; It is a refined product. Even if crude oil is available, lack of sufficient refining capacity or refinery disruptions will limit diesel supply. Sternoff says the supply of refined products is still half of pre-war levels, as exports of refined products from refineries in the Persian Gulf region have been significantly reduced due to US military aggression.

The war between Russia and Ukraine: Russia used to be one of the largest exporters of diesel in the world and in 2025, it would export about 817,000 barrels per day. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure have reduced Moscow's refining capacity and forced Russia to limit diesel exports.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in an interview with Reuters: "Barring a global economic recession and extremely serious action to reduce energy consumption, the only thing that can prevent oil prices from rising further and putting them on a sharp downward path is a lasting end to the conflicts in the Persian Gulf and between Russia and Ukraine." "Otherwise, policy options range from marginal to counterproductive."

An immediate end to the war is the only lasting solution

The sum total of Trump's actions could be called a "crisis management for the election" package: freeing up reserves to increase immediate supply, dyed diesel to reduce drivers' costs by a few cents per gallon, and Russian diesel imports to send a message of strength to the market. But none of this will increase refining capacity, restore the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and end the war.

Grigory Brough, an analyst at the Eurasia Group think tank, summed up Gasoili's agreement in a short and sharp phrase: "It's a Band-Aid, nothing more." Experts and analysts of the energy market are unanimous in this matter, the only sustainable solution to reduce the price of fuel is the immediate end of the war and the return of security to the Strait of Hormuz; The solution that Trump has so far settled for buying time for the American fuel market and his election campaign.