China: Big Winner of Global Trade?

China's exports rose about 36.3% in September 2026, lifting its monthly trade surplus to $133.5 billion and intensifying concerns among Beijing's trading partners over global trade imbalances.

According to Mehr reporter, according to the Financial Times report on October 14, 2026, China's exports in September increased by 36.3% compared to the same period last year.

The figure was higher than the 25% growth in August and exceeded the forecast of 25.7% among economists polled by Bloomberg. The data of the General Administration of Customs of China was the basis of this report.

Reuters also announced in a report on October 14 that China's imports increased by 31% in this month; While economists had predicted a 24.5% growth. Despite the growth of imports, the increase in exports made China's monthly trade surplus reach 133.53 billion dollars; While this figure was 119.1 billion dollars in August.

According to a Bloomberg report on October 14, China's trade surplus in the first 9 months of this year reached about 938 billion dollars. China's trade surplus in the first 9 months of this year reached about 938 billion dollars. This trend has increased the possibility that China's annual trade surplus will surpass the record of about 1.19 trillion dollars in 2025.

artificial intelligence and semiconductors; Export growth engine

The growth of global demand for equipment related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data processing equipment has been one of the important factors in increasing China's exports.

AI-related goods, including chips and automatic data processing equipment, accounted for 17.9 percent of China's total exports in September and explained about 13 percentage points of export growth, the Financial Times reported. A share that was higher than 11.3 percentage points in August.

According to this newspaper, the Goldman Sachs estimate shows that the value of China's semiconductor exports in September increased by 136% compared to the previous year, but the export volume grew by only 1%. This difference shows that the increase in the price of chips played an important role in the growth of the export value, and the growth of the dollar value should not be considered equivalent to a similar increase in physical production.

Also, Chinese customs data reported by Reuters indicate a 108.1% increase in the value of semiconductor exports in the first nine months of the year. The export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts also increased by 54.6% in the same period.

China's record trade surplus with the European Union

The increase in China's exports to foreign markets is also reflected in the country's trade with the European Union. In a report on October 14, Bloomberg announced that China's merchandise trade surplus with the European Union reached $34.8 billion in September; A figure that was nearly 21% higher than the same period last year.

According to this report, China's exports to the European Union exceeded 60 billion dollars for the first time, while the country's imports from this bloc were about 25 billion dollars.

Reuters also wrote in its October 15 report about the European Union leaders' meeting in Brussels that the European Union's merchandise trade deficit with China has reached 360 billion euros in 2025. In this meeting, European leaders discussed the increase in Chinese exports, energy costs and tools to support domestic industries.

The trade disputes between the two sides continue in a situation where the European Union is concerned about the pressure of Chinese goods imports on its domestic producers. Automobiles, steel, chemicals and machinery are among the sectors that are important in discussions about trade imbalance.

According to published reports, Beijing and Brussels have also reached an understanding on mechanisms to manage imports of Chinese hybrid cars to Europe. However, this agreement does not mean a complete resolution of the trade disputes between the two sides.

Greater dependence on foreign demand

The increase in exports occurred in a situation where China's domestic economy is still facing weak demand and problems in the housing sector. Therefore, export plays an important role in maintaining the activity of factories and supporting the economic growth of this country.

The Associated Press wrote in a report on October 14 that the growth of China's exports has led to increased concerns among the country's trading partners about the pressure of Chinese goods on their domestic industries. In the same report, the growth of the export of technology-oriented goods and the increase of China's trade surplus are mentioned, along with the relative weakness of domestic consumption and investment.

However, continued export growth depends on global demand conditions, AI investment cycles, technology product prices, and trade policies of importing countries. Intensification of tariffs or import restrictions can further affect the flow of goods and supply chains.

Overall, the September figures show that China still has high capacity in production and exports, but the country's growing trade surplus could exacerbate disputes with major partners. The main issue for the Chinese economy in the coming months will be maintaining export growth while strengthening domestic demand and managing trade tensions.