Why did October 7 help Netanyahu's survival?/ Zeidabadi: The war with Iran is not a point of contention in Israeli society/ Netanyahu's decline in popularity does not mean he will leave.

Ahmed Zeidabadi wrote: The October 7th earthquake not only messed up Israel's security equations, but also pushed the Israeli society to a deeper extremism. However, even though Netanyahu's popularity has faded, this does not mean the end of his career on the political playing field.

According to Ambassador Arjan Ahmed Zeidabadi, a journalist and analyst of political issues, he says about the profound changes in the attitude of Israeli society after October 7; The changes that he believes have affected both its political atmosphere and made the equations related to the future of Israel's relations with the countries of the region more complicated.

According to Ambassador Arjan, you can read the most important parts of this conversation below:

* The fact is that October 7 shook the Israeli society and had a deep impact on the mentality of the people of this country. In Israel, usually more than half of the population, or at least a large part of it, supported finding a peaceful way to coexist with the Palestinians, through territorial separation or a two-state solution. But October 7 pushed a significant part of the Israeli society towards more extremism and caused many people to be pessimistic about the possibility of coexistence with the Palestinians. As a result, the previous balance in Israeli public opinion has been largely lost and the tendency towards radical and extreme currents has increased. The two-state solution now seems to have much less support in Israeli society, with support reaching about a quarter of the population or less. However, the problem is that there is no clear alternative solution either. If the Palestinian issue is not going to be resolved through territorial separation and the formation of two countries, what will be the fate of this conflict? This question remains unanswered.

* Politically, October 7 also helped the survival of Netanyahu's government. Before this incident, his government was facing serious crises and widespread street protests, but the war and the security situation after that allowed him to remain in power for a long time. However, the way Netanyahu faced the October 7 attack has become one of his weak points. His critics believe that he ignored the threat, did not evaluate its dimensions correctly, and failed to show an appropriate reaction to it. More importantly, Netanyahu, unlike some Israeli security and military officials, did not accept political responsibility for this failure and did not allow a government commission of inquiry to be formed to investigate its dimensions. All these factors have weakened his personal position against his competitors.

*Despite the criticism of Netanyahu's performance in the October 7 incident, the Gaza war, and internal issues such as Haredi military service, why do his opponents still face a challenge to reach the parliamentary majority? If dissatisfaction with the government is so widespread, why is it not easy to remove Netanyahu? There is dissatisfaction with Netanyahu, but this dissatisfaction does not mean a complete change in the Israeli society's view of him.

* Netanyahu has been the prime minister for many years and has been known in the past as a figure with the ability to provide security. His position was very strong at times and his distance from other political figures for the leadership of Israel seemed significant. The Likud party was also in the position of the first party by a long distance. On the other hand, as I said, after October 7, the Israeli society has moved towards more extremism and a more severe treatment of the Palestinians. Therefore, some of the factors that previously worked in Netanyahu's favor are still present in Israel's political environment; However, his performance in managing the security crisis has weakened his position.

*One must distinguish between two issues: a person may have become weaker than in the past, but this does not mean that his opponents can easily gain a parliamentary majority and completely remove him from the political scene. It seems that the current ruling coalition of Israel will lose some of its seats and its position has weakened compared to the elections four years ago. However, the extent of this weakening is not necessarily enough for the opposition to form a parliamentary majority without difficulty. Another point is that the war with Iran is not as controversial as some other issues in Israeli society, and it seems that there is more agreement in this field. Even in the case of the Gaza war, public discontent does not necessarily mean widespread opposition to the principle of the war. What has been criticized especially for Netanyahu is his responsibility in preventing the October 7 attack and his inability to predict it.

* In order to evaluate the foreign policy of the possible future government of Israel, in addition to the positions of the prime minister, the composition of the coalition and the political and geographical requirements of this country should also be considered. In the case of Iran, it cannot be concluded solely based on the change of the prime minister that Israel's policy will necessarily change. It remains to be seen what composition the new government will have and what policy it will follow in practice. However, one of the possible consequences of the change of government in Israel could be related to the country's relations with other countries in the region; An issue that is also important from Iran's point of view.

*Currently, it cannot be said that with the new government taking office, the level of tension between Israel and Qatar or Turkey will necessarily increase. Some of these positions are related to the political and geographical conditions of the region, and it remains to be seen what approach the future government will take in practice. In my opinion, in the perspective that can be drawn now, there is no reason for Israel's tension level with Qatar and Türkiye to increase. Even if the new coalition wants to show some flexibility towards the Palestinian issue, there is a possibility that Israel's relations with these two countries will improve, as well as a series of Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

In such a situation, the change of government in Israel may be a problem for the Islamic Republic because if Iran wants to continue its current policies, it is likely to become more isolated in the region and some countries in the region will find more convergence with Israel.