Major League Baseball is testing new rules this fall to fundamentally change the sport

Beyond the infield shift ban, MLB is now testing outfield positioning rules in the Arizona Fall League to combat fly ball batting averages.

Brett Boone is jealous of today's baseball analysis Don't @ Me w/Dan Dakich

Brett Boone says he envies the access to film and analysis current MLB players have.

Beyond the ill-advised attempt to call for an unnecessary salary cap in baseball, one of the main talking points in the sport has been the decline in offensive production.

Strikeouts continue to rise, while batting averages are down league-wide. There is endless debate about the importance of positional kicks, putting the ball in play, and the supposed lack of talent among modern strikers.

This "me-time" thinking is wrong for a number of reasons, including the abundance of data that now shows it, but it ignores several key factors that have affected the in-field product. However, Major League Baseball realizes that a lower-scoring environment doesn't always make for the most exciting viewing. And they are right.

The Dodgers are on the brink after Milwaukee's Bobip Machine picked up another win for the Brewers.

One of their early attempts to combat increased run prevention was to limit the infield movement. For years, infielders were allowed to stand almost anywhere, including in some extreme cases, in the middle of the field. Those shifts significantly reduced the likelihood that ground balls would turn into hits, as they had for most of baseball history.

The league issued specific guidelines regarding outfield positioning, essentially requiring shortstops and second basemen to remain on the second base side, among other changes. Mostly, it worked.

After baseball's new rules were enacted, the league-wide batting average increased. Here's how it looks as of 2018:

While still low, the 0.240 midpoint represents a significant uptick from the turnaround period. However, fans may not have noticed more ground ball hits, and the data bears that out. For example, in 2018, there were nearly 54,000 at-bats that ended with a ground ball. In 2026, there were just over 51,000 hits, but the number of hits was similar. The batting average has increased, but the total number of hits has not changed.

Why does this happen? More fly balls is exactly what the league is hoping to address with its potential changes.

Thanks to years of data analysis, baseball front offices know that the most likely positive results come from hitting the ball in the air. In theory. The best strikers in the league hit the ball hard and hit it in the air. Thanks to the advent of pitch metrics, pitch shaping, and the endless parade of 100 mph relievers, hitting is generally harder than ever. After that, front offices have made it a priority to find players who may not communicate often, but when they do communicate with high quality. The data suggests that. Results on fly balls and line drives are significantly better than grounders.

For example, in 2018, the league hit .402 with a .770 slugging percentage in the air, compared to .236 with a .258 slugging percentage on ground balls.

But here's the problem, one that MLB hopes to address: thanks to the advent of Statcast and the endless amount of data now available to teams, defensive positioning is now so good that teams are dramatically reducing their success rates on fly balls and liners.

We'll get to the data in a minute, but here's a perfect example of this phenomenon from Monday night's NLCS game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers.

To set the stage, the Dodgers staged a rally against Logan Henderson, putting runners on first and second with nobody out in the top of the third in a 1-1 game. Henderson threw Freddie Freeman with an awful 0-1 changeup that ended up right in the strike zone for the left-handed hitter. Freeman crushed it, 106.4 mph with a 22-degree launch angle, straight into the right-center field gap. According to the league's Statcast page, balls put in play with these characteristics are hit 84 percent of the time. For the entire history of baseball, it was the prototype double.

Instead, right fielder Sal Frelik was perfectly positioned and ran the ball downfield without having to dive. Instead of a bases-clearing double that would score two runs and set up a potential big inning, it's a fly ball out.

Do you want to know why the offense has decreased? That's right there

Despite their reputation as an old-school "play the game the right way," back-to-back Brewers use analytics as much or more than any team in baseball. Their front office analyzes every batted ball from Freddie Freeman against right-handed pitchers who analyze the exact same pitches Logan Henderson throws, then tells his players to adjust where he's most likely to hit the ball. And what It was a surprise that they were able to help them in the game.

Sure, league-wide, teams have gotten increasingly good at limiting the offense on fly balls and line drives thanks to defensive positioning.

Here are the batting averages and slugging percentages across baseball from 2018 on balls in the air.

It's still much better to hit the ball in the air than on the ground, but as the data shows, the league's batting average has dropped dramatically, 35 points from the 2019 "juicy ball" season and almost 20 points from either 2018 or 2021.

That is why the offense has decreased. Teams are increasingly good at positioning their players. Both left-right and just as importantly, with deeper gameplay than ever before. And MLB may be looking to stop it.

FanGraphs reported on an apparent test of new defensive positioning rules being tested in the Arizona Fall League, the first regular stop on MLB's long road to new rules.

According to their report, "sources told me the league's motivation is to see if further limiting where defenders are allowed to stand would create more base-hitting action and have a positive impact on the aesthetics of the game."

An unapologetic, unforgivable Craig-carton show. Download his daily podcast now!

"Dark green hash marks were painted on the outfield turf and at points along the arc where the infield dirt meets the outfield turf," the report said. When a pitch is thrown, defenders must stand a certain distance from these hash marks.

"In this arrangement," he continues, "infielders are forced to play 'straight,' while outfielders are closer to the foul lines and the center fielder is shallower than where we typically see big league outfielders today."

The Hawkeye system, which tracks balls and hits, as well as the location of balls in play and the locations of players on the field, is used to monitor defenders' positions relative to these painted anchor points on the field. Above the stands, suspended just below the press box and visible from the field, are LED boards that indicate to players whether they are limiting the position.

This is fascinating. And maybe that's a good thing for baseball. Some purists lament the invasion of more technology and specific rules governing where fielders are allowed to stand. But many of the changes made by MLB were initially frowned upon, but within a few years they were largely overlooked or even admired. The pitch clock has been undeniably good and has increased playing time, while the on-field initiative to end infield shifts has worked, although the effects may not have been as dramatic as expected.

But limiting outfield positioning could fundamentally change baseball by dramatically increasing the amount of offensive success teams, players and fans have become conditioned to watching the sport over the years. It also increases the importance of sportsmanship and skill among off-field players. The left winger, whose poor defense can be compensated for by excellent positioning, suddenly has to cover more ground. Faster hitters who can push the ball into the gaps can use their speed and gain extra bases.

Hitting is harder than ever. Starters and relievers throw harder and with more

Get all the stories you need to know from the most powerful names in news delivered to your inbox every morning.