How does Iran circumvent the US naval blockade? Traces of oil tankers in the waters of Oman

Source link: How does Iran bypass the US naval blockade? Traces of tankers in Oman waters at a glance Export of liquefied gas: Since mid-July, at least 8 ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have left the Gulf of Oman. Transfer method: Iran has tried to move its cargo by using ship-to-ship transfer, especially near Oman and Malaysian waters. Washington's position: The US military says that the siege […] Sa

Export of liquefied gas: Since mid-July, at least 8 ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have left the Gulf of Oman.

Transfer method: Iran has tried to move its cargo by using ship-to-ship transfer, especially near Oman and Malaysian waters.

Washington's position: The US military says the naval blockade is still in place. According to the US Central Command, within three months of the implementation of the new round of blockade, 135 ships have been forced to change course and four commercial ships have been disabled.

According to shipping intelligence data and statements by people familiar with maritime security issues, Iran has been able to export some liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and jet fuel since July, despite the US naval blockade.

This report was published by Oilprice and rewritten and translated by Sefir Arjan's team.

Four maritime security activists who monitor oil movements in the Persian Gulf told Reuters that in recent weeks, Tehran has hidden its cargoes amid increasing ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers in waters near Oman.

For the first time, this report reveals the details of Iran's exports and the methods used to do so. Although the volume of these shipments is very small compared to Iran's energy exports in the past, it is rare evidence of oil products passing through the blockade that has stopped Iran's crude oil exports.

Analysis by the American group "United Against Nuclear Iran" (UANI), which monitors the movement of tankers linked to Iran using ship tracking data and satellites, shows that at least eight ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas have left the Gulf of Oman since mid-July.

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Also, satellite images and additional analyzes of the "SynMax" marine intelligence group show that another oil tanker carrying Iranian jet fuel arrived in Myanmar in September.

How have the price of liquid gas and jet fuel reacted to the reports about the blockade?

The US imposed targeted sanctions against Myanmar's jet fuel industry in 2023. Washington announced the reason for this action was the Myanmar army's air attacks on civilians; According to the United Nations, the attacks left thousands dead. Myanmar's military government has repeatedly denied targeting civilians and has claimed that its operations are against armed groups.

Reuters' review of ships and sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department shows that six out of eight gas ships, as well as an oil tanker carrying jet fuel, are under US sanctions due to the transfer of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products.

Jemima Shelley, senior research analyst at UANI Group, said: "What we have observed is the passage of a limited number of tankers carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas; But the vast majority of oil tankers carrying Iranian products have been directed to other routes by the American forces."

Shelley added that some oil tankers carrying Iranian liquefied gas have transferred their cargoes near the coastal cities of Shenas and Sohar in Oman. Others have waited in the Gulf of Oman for a while and then passed through the US naval blockade. The area announced by the Central Command of the US Army is located in the Gulf of Oman, near the border of Iran and Pakistan.

According to Shelley, the total volume of these liquefied gas shipments is estimated at 4.1 million barrels.

He emphasized that these shipments were mostly moved under the influence of "opportunism" and do not necessarily indicate the formation of a new trend in which Iran wants to export its oil and petrochemical products using smaller ships.

According to UANI's analysis, most of these cargoes have gone to Malaysia's eastern foreign port area to be transferred again through ship-to-ship transfers; An action that shows their possible final destination is China.

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The Iranian government did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. Myanmar's military-backed government also did not comment in response to a question about receiving Iranian jet fuel.

US military: naval blockade is "impenetrable".

The US military's central command announced that the country's naval blockade, which was first imposed on April 13 against Iran-related oil exports, is "impenetrable".

The blockade was lifted in June, after the US and Iran reached an initial understanding; But after the collapse of the agreement, it was implemented again on July 14.

A US military official told Reuters that a ship passing through the area does not necessarily mean that the ship has escaped the blockade. According to him, each ship is evaluated individually and its documents are examined. The official added that some ships may be allowed to pass for humanitarian reasons.

He also explained that the inclusion of a ship's name in the US sanctions list is not the only determining factor for its inclusion in the blockade. American forces are also closely monitoring some ships, but do not take action against them for operational reasons.

In a report published on October 13, the Central Command of the US Army announced that within three months of the implementation of the new round of blockade, four commercial ships have been disabled and US forces have forced 135 ships to change course.

According to the previous statements of the Central Command, the US military has also sent back ships that were traveling from Asia and seized several oil tankers.

In addition to the naval blockade, Washington is also pursuing a wide-ranging sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off Iran's remaining financial connections and depriving Tehran of foreign exchange earnings. Last week, the United States imposed new sanctions against 17 ships involved in the transportation of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products.

What effect have the recent sanctions had on Iran's marine energy transportation?

A spokesman for the U.S. Treasury Department questioned shipping data showing that some ships bypassed the blockade, saying ships may falsify their location or use fake identities when loading.

He emphasized that the data "should be viewed with some skepticism."

Torbjörn Soltvedt, senior Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft risk intelligence company, said: If Iran can get even a limited number of tankers carrying oil products through the blockade, jet fuel could be a good option. "Iran's aviation industry is under increasing pressure from the US sanctions, the number of grounded planes is increasing, and Iranian refineries may also be facing a surplus of jet fuel."

According to the data of Kpler, Iran's crude oil exports reached zero in September. This was the first month without registering any export shipment since the company started monitoring this producer in 2013.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has previously said that the maritime blockade has prevented China from buying most of Iran's oil and that Iran is no longer able to deliver its crude oil to its customers.