"Mother of all bombs" will change the rules of the game between Tehran and Trump? | A three-day war is coming Trump's pressure tool or a war starter beyond Washington's calculations?

The possibility of the US using its largest non-nuclear bomb against Iranian facilities has once again highlighted the danger of expanding the confrontation between Tehran and Washington; An operation that may be limited and short-term from the point of view of the White House, but its end will not necessarily be according to America's calculations.

According to Ambassador Arjan, Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of using the so-called "mother of all bombs" bomb against Iran; Statements that, along with reports about Washington's military planning, have increased concerns about the entry of the confrontation between the two countries into a new phase. The main question is whether such an attack can change the security equations of the region in favor of the United States or whether it will lead to a wider conflict.

According to Bloomberg, Trump emphasized in an interview with the Newsmax network that this bomb is not a nuclear weapon, but an ammunition with a very high explosive power. He also spoke about the possibility of targeting the Kahlang facilities and claimed that Washington's goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, the American president has not considered sending ground forces to Iran in his agenda.

According to the CBS report, the White House and the Pentagon have reviewed scenarios for the possible use of the MOAB bomb in order to be able to carry out the operation if the presidential decree is issued. Weighing more than 13 tons, this bomb is considered one of the largest conventional munitions of the US Army.

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Trump had previously spoken about Washington's avoidance of attacking Iran before the US mid-term elections and pointed to the existence of constructive dialogues. However, reports indicate that the military option is still in the calculations of the US government. The history of using this bomb in Afghanistan in 2017, against the positions of the ISIS group, also shows that this weapon has been used in real operations before.

Despite this, having high destructive power does not necessarily mean achieving strategic goals. Denis Citronovich, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, believes that the use of such a weapon alone will not force Tehran to surrender; However, it may psychologically and promotionally allow Trump to present the attack as a major victory.

The gap between military victory and political achievement

One of the most important challenges of American strategy is the difference between destroying a facility and destroying the capabilities of a nuclear program. Even an attack with high explosive power cannot necessarily destroy technical knowledge, human capabilities and the possibility of rebuilding related infrastructure.

From this point of view, a possible attack on the Kahlang facility could allow Washington to claim a decisive blow to Iran's nuclear program; But the degree of compliance of such a claim with the field realities will be a separate issue. In fact, the publicity success of a military operation does not necessarily mean solving the problem that the operation was aimed at.

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On the other hand, Hamidreza Azizi, an analyst of the International Crisis Group, emphasizes that Tehran may not be satisfied with a symbolic response even against an attack with limited goals. From his point of view, the problem for Iran is not only to end the war, but also to redefine the rules of confrontation with America and to create an effective deterrent to prevent the repetition of possible attacks.

Citronovich also warned that the idea of carrying out a three-day operation, without taking into account Iran's role in determining the course and end of the conflict, could cause problems in Washington's calculations. Iran's reaction may expand the geographical scope of the conflict and the set of targets attacked and increase its military and political costs.

Finally, the use of the "mother of all bombs" may be a tool for the United States to exert pressure and show power, but the result of such an action is not guaranteed in advance. Washington can decide when to start operations, but it will not depend on its unilateral will to decide when to end the war. If the goal is to sustainably change the deterrence equation, a limited attack may lead to a new round of tension and confrontation instead of ending the crisis.