Where Is Saudi Arabia's Military Achilles' Heel Against Yemen?

Despite heavy military spending and advanced air defense systems, Saudi Arabia faces challenges against missile and drone attacks by Yemeni forces, including vast geography, the high cost of interception, and the supply of munitions.

Ambassador Arjan of the International Group: Despite Saudi Arabia's heavy military spending and the country's possession of advanced fighters, Patriot and THAAD defense systems, and modern radar equipment, dealing with Yemen's Ansarullah missile and drone attacks is still associated with challenges. The geographical extent of Saudi Arabia, the diversity of Ansarullah's offensive tools and the high cost of using interceptor missiles are among the factors that can put pressure on Riyadh's defense capability in a long conflict.

geographical extent; The challenge of protecting critical infrastructure

Saudi Arabia allocates tens of billions of dollars annually for military spending, and according to the estimates of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the country's military spending in 2024 will be around 80 billion dollars. However, having advanced equipment does not mean that it is possible to fully protect all the infrastructure of a country.

The vastness of Saudi Arabia's territory, the dispersion of oil facilities, airports, military bases and strategic centers make it difficult to protect these goals at the same time. Defense systems must detect and intercept threats in different regions while ensuring adequate coverage for critical infrastructure. These conditions make the allocation and deployment of defense resources one of Riyadh's main challenges.

Ansarullah's drone and missile tactics

The second factor is the variety of offensive tools and the possibility of using drones and missiles at the same time. The use of different threats can put detection and interception systems under operational pressure and increase the necessity of managing multiple targets at the same time.

In such a situation, the issue is not only the ability to intercept a missile or drone; Moreover, the level of readiness of defense systems to continuously deal with attacks and maintain defense cover against multiple threats also becomes important. However, the success rate of such tactics in any attack depends on the type of weapons, the number of targets, the flight path and the performance of the defense systems.

The difference in the cost of attack and defense; Cheap UAV vs multi-million dollar interceptor

One of the most important aspects of this challenge is the difference between the cost of producing some offensive drones and the cost of advanced interceptor missiles. According to some estimates, the cost of building a number of long-range suicide drones used by Yemeni forces can be in the range of several tens of thousands of dollars; In contrast, the price of an advanced Patriot interceptor missile, depending on the model and terms of the contract, may reach several million dollars.

For example, if the cost of a drone is assumed to be 20,000 dollars and the cost of an interceptor missile is assumed to be 4 million dollars, the difference in the cost of the two is about 200 times. Of course, this comparison is approximate and the actual price of drones and missiles will be different based on the model, accessories and supply conditions.

This difference does not mean that in every attack an interceptor missile is necessarily fired to deal with every drone; However, repeated attacks and the need to use expensive ammunition can increase the cost of defense and put more pressure on weapons stocks.

Dependence on America and the issue of ammunition supply

The third challenge is related to the stocks of interceptor missiles and the possibility of replacing them. Each time defense missiles are used, a part of the ready-to-use reserves is reduced, and if the attacks continue, the need to resupply ammunition increases. In addition to the financial cost, this process depends on the production capacity, delivery time and access to the supply chain.

Saudi Arabia depends on the United States to provide an important part of its advanced equipment and ammunition. On the other hand, the increase in the consumption of American ammunition in regional conflicts can affect the prioritization of orders and delivery time to Washington's allies. There have also been reports of pressure on US Patriot missile stocks and delays in delivery of some orders to allies; An issue that highlights the importance of production capacity and reserve replacement.

In this context, the figure of about 9 billion dollars for the purchase of 730 Patriot missiles, which was mentioned in the reports related to the Saudi arms contract, shows the financial dimensions of providing these ammunitions. However, the final contract figure, equipment mix and delivery schedule should be evaluated based on the formal details of the same contract.

Saudi Arabia's defense power cannot be measured solely based on the amount of military spending or the number of its advanced systems. The geographical extent, the dispersion of targets, the variety of drone and missile attacks, and the cost of replacing ammunition, all play a role in evaluating the defense stability of this country.

In a short conflict, having advanced systems can provide an important advantage; But in a long and erosive confrontation, the capacity to produce and supply ammunition, the cost of interception and the ability to maintain operational readiness become more important. From this point of view, Saudi Arabia's challenge is not only to deal with the attacks, but also to maintain the defense capability against repeated attacks and to continuously provide the resources needed for it.