Global Smartphone Sales Plunge 20%, Hitting Lowest Level in 14 Years

The Counterpoint Research institute announced on October 12, 2026 (20 Mehr 1405) that global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 20 percent compared with the same period last year, reaching their lowest level for this period since 2012. This is the second […]

According to ICT News; Counterpoint Research Institute announced on October 12, 2026 (20 October 1405) that the global supply of smartphones in the third quarter of 2026 decreased by 20% compared to the same period of the previous year and reached its lowest level in this period since 2012. This is the second quarter in a row that the market has been completely affected by the memory crisis.

memory crisis; The main cause of the market crash

The shortage and sharp increase in the price of DRAM and NAND memory chips is the main reason for this decrease. Artificial intelligence infrastructure projects have occupied a large part of the memory production capacity, and this has limited the supply of memory needed by smartphones. The price of LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 memories has increased by three times compared to the end of 2025.

Manufacturers have passed on higher component costs to consumers, and the global retail price of smartphones has increased by 20% since the start of 2026.

Samsung remained in first place in the global market with a share of 23%. The supply of this company decreased by only 3%, which is considered the lowest drop among large producers. Strong demand for the Galaxy Z Fold 8 series and stable supply of parts for mid-range A phones helped Samsung increase its share.

For the first time in a third quarter, Apple's market share exceeded 20% and reached 22%. The main reason for the decrease in Apple's supply was the lack of the basic iPhone 18 model in the product portfolio of this period. However, iPhone 18 Pro models performed better than the previous generation, especially in China and India.

In total, Samsung and Apple took more than 40% of the global market and increased their distance from other competitors.

Xiaomi recorded the biggest drop among major manufacturers. The supply of this company decreased by more than 30% and its market share reached 10% from 14% in the third quarter of 2025. Counterpoint has described this reduction as deliberate: to avoid sales with uneconomical profit margins, Xiaomi has reduced its presence in the segment of low-cost phones and some foreign markets, and has focused on the Chinese market and the mid-range and flagship segments.

Oppo and Vivo also decreased their supply by more than 20% and their share reached 9% and 8% respectively. By integrating the Oppo, Realme and OnePlus brands, Oppo seeks to reduce overlap and improve cost efficiency. Vivo is also focused on the core markets of India and China and strengthening the Y series to attract consumers.

Shilpi Jain, senior analyst at Counterpoint, stated that consumers have extended the maintenance period of their current phones, are more willing to buy refurbished devices, and prefer more expensive models when choosing a new phone.

Counterpoint predicts that the market will face serious challenges by the end of 2026. Manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing profitability over volume, and production cuts, product portfolio simplification and a focus on more expensive devices are likely to continue.

The IDC Institute has predicted that the global supply of smartphones will reach 1.08 billion devices in 2026, which will decrease by 13.9% compared to the previous year.

The global memory chip crisis has also affected the Iranian market. The prices of DRAM and NAND memories have increased between 80 and 90% in the first quarter of 2026, and in the second quarter for mobile memories up to 100%, and the delivery time of these parts has reached 40 to 58 weeks. In a budget Xiaomi phone with a base price of $55, the cost of providing memory has jumped from $8 to $48.

The 20% fall of the global smartphone market and reaching its lowest level in the last 14 years indicates an important structural change in the mobile industry. The memory crunch caused by the insatiable demand of AI data centers has completely affected the smartphone supply chain, forcing manufacturers to adopt defensive strategies.

The noteworthy point is the divergence of the brand strategy. Relying on a stable supply of parts and focusing on high-end products, Samsung and Apple have been able to increase their share even in a down market. On the other hand, Xiaomi, which has always been the symbol of affordable phones, has now retreated from the low-end segment by deliberately reducing the supply. This change of strategy shows that even the economic giants of the mobile market have succumbed to cost pressure.

The main consequence of this crisis for consumers is an increase in prices and a decrease in the variety of products. If the current trend continues, we will probably see the gradual removal of budget phones from the product portfolio of brands and a greater focus on mid-range and flagship devices. This change could seriously challenge access to affordable smartphones for millions of users in emerging markets.