Strait of Hormuz; Iran's winning paper in the framework of "Prisoners of Geography"

Tim Marshall's framework in Prisoners of Geography and The Power of Geography shows why this narrow waterway is not just a shipping lane, but the world's most fragile energy bottleneck.

Ambassador Arjan; Ali Damavandi Kanari- In the middle of the tension between Iran and the United States, an old reality has once again returned to the top of the analysis: the Strait of Hormuz. Drawing on Tim Marshall's framework in Prisoners of Geography and The Power of Geography, this note shows why this narrow waterway is not just a shipping lane, but the world's most fragile energy bottleneck.

As Tim Marshall says in "Prisoners of Geography": Leaders and nations are not completely free in their choices; Rivers, mountains and seas limit their maneuvering circle. This old principle has been revived today in the heat of tension between America and Iran; Where no analysis is complete except by looking at a narrow blue opening called the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz is the most important exit route for oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar, and nearly one-fifth of the world's consumed oil passes through it. Marshall in "The Power of Geography" considers it as the fulcrum of Tehran's geopolitics; Not because of missiles or drones, but because of geography that no power can change.

Marshall's central thesis is simple but powerful: geographic landscape limits leaders' room for maneuver. He considers Iran to be one of the most geographical countries in the world: the Zagros mountain range stretches like a wall along the borders of Turkey and Iraq to the north of the Persian Gulf, the Alborz mountains and the central plateau have made it difficult for invaders to penetrate throughout history, and Tehran is located behind these natural barriers in a safe zone.

This geography has turned Iran into a natural fortress that holds the key to the bottleneck that the world economy depends on in its southern opening. Technologies and ideologies come and go, but mountains and gorges remain.

According to the June 2025 report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025 was about 20.9 million barrels per day; More than any other bottleneck in the world and equivalent to nearly one-fifth of the global consumption of petroleum products. China, India, Japan and South Korea absorb about three quarters of this volume; That is, the economic life of East Asia is tied to this gap.

The fragility of the strait is shown by geographical details better than raw numbers: the narrowest point between the Musandam peninsula of Oman and the coast of Iran is only 21 miles (about 34 kilometers), and within this gap, only about six miles can be used for the passage of oil tankers; Two miles of entrance, two miles of exit and two miles of privacy. Alternatives are also limited: Saudi and UAE pipelines bypass only a fraction of the volume, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has virtually no other route.

Iran relies on asymmetric deterrence against America's military and air superiority. The threat of closing the strait, even without action, makes the price of Brent oil jump; As in the middle of the tensions of 2025, Brent rose from 69 to 74 dollars in one day. This is the logic that the former IRGC commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari, clearly stated in 2012: "Either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one."

The idea of ​​completely closing the strait is also costly for Iran itself from a legal and economic point of view, but this reciprocal cost increases the cost of provocation for Washington. The US cannot manage a war centered on the waters of the Straits without imposing a heavy cost on the global economy and its partners.

Marshall's great lesson is that geopolitics reads politics from the heart of the map, not from the slogan. In the Iran-US conflict, missiles and sanctions are the headlines, but what gives Tehran strategic depth and prompts Asian and European capitals to be cautious is the physical reality of the strait.

According to Marshall, Iran is a prisoner of geography; But in this prison, he holds the key to one of the most important doors of the world economy. As long as this reality remains, any strategy to reduce tension in the Middle East must inevitably start from the waters of Hormuz, not from Washington and Tehran.