Lessons from Industrial Countries for Resolving Iran's Electricity Imbalance

Iran faces a combination of the challenges these countries have dealt with: from Canada, the distance between major generation sources and consumption centers; from China, geographic vastness and spatial mismatch between electricity production and demand; from the United States, the need to transmit large volumes of power; from Japan, the necessity of planning for future needs; and from Germany, the need to assess multiple technologies simultaneously rather than relying on a single solution.

Ambassador Arjan; Majid Arianjad; Researcher in the field of energy and economy

Advance: Series of notes on energy and economy" is a collection of independent notes on energy and economy in Iran and the world; Notes that each examine an independent topic with an analytical and comprehensible view for the public. Studying each note does not require referring to the previous material.

Iran's electricity imbalance is not only caused by lack of production; The geographical extent of the country, the dispersion of production and consumption centers and the limitation of transmission capacity also play a role in it. With the change of seasons, the centers of electricity supply and demand are shifted and the country's electricity grid is not always able to transfer electricity from areas with excess production to areas in need of consumption. The estimates of the Ministry of Energy show that the transmission capacity in some main corridors of the 230 and 400 kV network is facing a limit of about 4300 MW; While the development plans aim to increase this capacity to about 10,000 megawatts in the first phase and 20,000 megawatts in the next phase.

Therefore, increasing the transmission capacity and examining options such as 765 kV lines have been on the agenda of Iran's electricity industry for many years. Industrialized countries have been facing a similar challenge for decades and have accumulated experiences from North America and Russia to Japan, Germany and China. These experiences show how to reduce the transmission limitation and use the power grid capacity more efficiently.

But what lessons does this 60-year experience have for Iran and which solutions are compatible with the country's technical, economic and operational conditions?

Why did the world go to higher voltages?

The first answer should be found in Canada. In the 1960s, the province of Quebec faced a rapid growth in electricity consumption and the development of hydropower plants in areas far from consumption centers. The 315 kV network was no longer enough to transfer new volumes. The result was the world's first commercial 735 kV line in 1965; A line that was built to transmit electricity from distant power plants to consumption areas. HydroQuebec later explained that one 735 kV line could almost replace four 315 kV lines in terms of transmission capacity.

Canada's lesson for Iran is clear: when production sources are far from consumption centers and transmission volumes are constantly increasing, increasing capacity by endlessly adding existing lines is not always the best answer. Sometimes it is necessary to change the "transmission voltage level".

America also followed a similar path, but with different conditions. American Electric Power (AEP) began testing 765 kV at its test facility in 1961, and after years of research, put the world's first 765 kV line into operation in 1969. Today, the company's 765 kV network covers more than 2,200 miles. More importantly, AEP didn't just draw the line for this technology; The laboratory developed design standards, tested equipment and proprietary engineering know-how.

This experience has a basic message for Iran: the development of the transmission network at higher voltages is not just a civil and construction project; Rather, it requires a technological leap and an interconnected set of technical knowledge, specialized equipment, standards, high-pressure laboratories, and engineering capabilities.

Russia has a different lesson: higher voltage levels are not always better

The Soviet Union had been working on transmission at 600-750 kV levels since the 1950s. One of the important points of this path took place in 1967; When the 750 kV Konakov-Moscow line, with a length of about 90 km, entered the circuit. It was not intended that a 90 km line alone would solve the Soviet power transmission problem. Its main importance was to test the 750 kV technology in the real scale of the network; The behavior of the line, substation equipment, insulation, corona, losses and operational issues should be measured and the results of this experience will be returned to the next designs. Then in 1975, the 750 kV Leningrad-Kunakov line with a length of about 525 km was put into operation.

The Soviet Union was even more ambitious, going for 1,150 kV in the 1980s. Ekibastuz-Kokchetav-Kustanai line was put into operation in 1985. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the change in economic conditions, the operation did not continue at the level of 1150 KV and the line was reduced to 500 KV.

This experience is perhaps more important for Iran than the 1150 kV technology itself: the large infrastructure must be built according to the country's economy, production and consumption patterns, and foreseeable future. Building a massive network without being sure that it will actually be needed decades from now can turn a heavy investment into an underutilized asset.

Japan; Prepare for the future, without immediate exploitation

In the 1970s, Japan began serious study of an ultra-high-capacity transmission network, and in the 1980s, it built lines with a 1,000 kV design. The West Gunma, South Niigata, East Gunma, and South Iwaki lines were built from the late 1980s to the 1990s; But the very interesting thing is that these lines, despite being designed for 1000 kV, were operated in sections with 500 kV.

Japan actually teaches us a very smart lesson: we don't need to consume all the capacity of tomorrow today; The infrastructure can be prepared for the future.

In Iran, if one day the construction of very high-capacity corridors is proposed, phased design can prevent a risky investment; In such a way that a part of the infrastructure is ready for future development from the beginning, but the exploitation is carried out according to the actual need.

Germany showed that the answer is not always at higher voltages

Germany has chosen a different path. In the country's grid, 380 kV still plays an important role, and to transfer large amounts of electricity in the north-south axis, especially with the growth of wind power plants in the north, the development of direct current lines with high capacity is on the agenda. In 2025, major permits were issued for four north-south "electric highways", including SuedLink and SuedOstLink.

Germany's lesson for Iran is perhaps the most important: the problem should not be tied to a specific technology in advance.

Sometimes a 400 kV boost is the best answer; Sometimes a new line, sometimes direct current, sometimes compensation and better network control, and sometimes a 765 kV corridor.

But China responded to another point: scale

China is perhaps one of the closest examples to Iran in terms of energy geography. More than 80% of its energy resources are concentrated in the west and north and more than 70% of electricity consumption is concentrated in the east and center. Therefore, China's problem was not only electricity production; Transferring huge amounts of energy from production areas to consumption centers.

In 2009, China commissioned its first 1,000 kV alternating current (AC) project, and then developed super high-capacity direct current (DC) grids. Today, this country has one of the largest high-voltage transmission networks in the world.

But China's experience is not only limited to the voltage number. They simultaneously developed equipment, design, manufacturing, testing, operation, manpower training and supply chain. That is, they did not "import" technology; They gradually turned it into industrial power.

China's lesson for Iran is that the development of high-voltage power networks becomes a strategic advantage when it is accompanied by the development of the country's industrial and technological power; That is, instead of relying on the import of equipment and technical know-how, the capacity of internal design, manufacturing, testing and operation should be gradually created.

Iran is more similar to which country?

Iran has a combination of the challenges of these countries: from Canada, the distance between large production sources and consumption centers; From China, the geographical extent and spatial inconsistency of production and demand; From America, the need to transfer a large amount of electricity; From Japan, the necessity of planning for future needs; And from Germany, the need to examine multiple technologies at the same time instead of relying on a single solution.

But the important difference of Iran is the restrictions caused by sanctions and the difficulty of accessing some of the equipment, technology, specialized services and financing. In this situation, depending on the type of goods, technology and transaction parties, they can complicate the provision of some equipment and services. Therefore, the challenge is not just to buy a transformer or a pressure switch; Stable access to spare parts, manufacturer services, specialized software, technical tests and engineering knowledge is also important. This fact doubles the necessity of strengthening the capability of designing, manufacturing, testing and internal maintenance.

Iran's industrial power; No rhetorical self-sufficiency! No permanent dependence!

Iran's electricity industry has considerable experience in the fields of design, equipment manufacturing, substation engineering, line implementation, and installation and commissioning services. However, the existing capability at the 400 kV level does not automatically mean full readiness to design and manufacture all the required equipment at the 765 kV level. This transition requires careful assessment of existing capabilities, laboratory testing, development of standards, and examination of technology gaps.

Sanctions and trade restrictions can also make it difficult to access certain specialized equipment, software, engineering services or technological cooperation. In such a situation, the appropriate strategy is neither to fully rely on imports nor to insist on the immediate manufacture of all components inside the country. A realistic path could be based on a combination of domestic capacity, available technological collaborations, targeted procurement of specific equipment and gradual transfer of know-how.

To achieve this goal, a step-by-step program can be defined: first, a detailed assessment of the capacity of manufacturers and domestic laboratories; then determine the equipment that can be built inside and those that require external supply; After that, the implementation of detailed studies and necessary tests; And finally, the implementation of a limited and evaluable project, subject to proof of technical and economic justification. The decision to expand further should depend on the results of these steps, not just on initial targeting.

Transmission network and regional exchange opportunity

The development of the transmission network can also help to increase the possibility of exchanging electricity with neighboring countries in the long term; But this goal is not automatically achieved by the construction of high pressure lines inside the country. Regional exchange depends on the actual capacity of the networks on both sides of the border, frequency compatibility and stability requirements, coordination of protection and control, capacity of internal routes, commercial contracts and operating agreements.

From this point of view, the possible connection of Iran's network with the countries of the region, including the northern neighbors and the Persian Gulf, should be investigated in the form of a long-term network development and energy exchange plan. For such a plan, in addition to internal transmission capacity, border routes, connection posts, network stability, trade settlement mechanisms, and political and economic risks must also be assessed.

summary; Higher voltage, only when it solves the problem

The experience of about six decades of developing high-voltage lines in the world has a common message: increasing the voltage can increase the transmission capacity and, under appropriate conditions, reduce the need to build multiple lines; But this technology only achieves the desired result when it is in harmony with the real need of the network, economic justification, long-term planning and the ability to operate.

For Iran, the main issue of choosing between 400 and 765 kV is not abstract. It needs to be determined which constraints can be overcome by strengthening the existing network, which routes require more transmission capacity, and under which conditions higher voltage lines or high voltage direct current (HVDC) technology could provide an advantage. At the same time, the development of industrial capacity should proceed based on the real assessment of the manufacturers' capacity, equipment testing, technical standards and the possibility of stable supply of parts.