Carney warns US is trying to 'break' Canada as Trump revives '51 states' threat.
Carney cited external pressure and urged Albertans to vote to remain in Canada. His comments came shortly after Trump threatened that Canada "will eventually become the 51st state."
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Thursday that the United States is trying to sow discord as he urged Albertans not to vote on a secession referendum.
"The stakes are high. This referendum is coming at the worst possible time. The world is more dangerous and divided," Carney told a rally in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of Monday's vote. "There are some outside our borders who are trying to break us so they can take us over."
While Carney did not specifically name the United States, the remarks echoed his earlier warnings about the dangers of American dominance. Carney's comments came after President Donald Trump on Wednesday revisited his ambitions to annex Canada, telling a crowd at a rally in Arizona that the country "will eventually become the 51st state because that's the only way to do it." Trump again accused Canada of treating the United States "very badly" and vowed that he would not let that happen again because "now [that] Trump is in town, it's a whole different ball game."
The US and Canada remain locked in a contentious trade standoff after talks broke down in August. Canada's retaliatory tariffs went into effect last month, and in line with economic pressure imposed by the United States, Carney encouraged Canadians to unite and reclaim their economic power by choosing Canadian products over those made in the United States.
In light of Trump's recent comments about possible accession, former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said it is dangerous to deepen or maintain close economic ties with a neighbor that "publicly says they want to take you over."
In an interview with The New York Times last month, Carney admitted that he had considered the risk of a U.S. invasion in light of Trump's rhetoric. "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at the extreme risk," he said. "It's just risk management. It's not a major one, but [not preparing] would be irresponsible."
Trump's reference to Canada one day being America's "fifty-first state" comes as Carney is pushing hard to promote his "strong Canada" strategy — one he hopes will include Alberta. A poll by 338 Canada shows that as of Oct. 11, 75 percent of Albertans would vote to remain part of Canada. But Carney's resolve has been tested on more than one front after the Quebec separatists won the Quebec provincial election earlier this month. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the future prime minister of Quebec, has announced his intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. While he has vowed not to initiate such a vote while Trump is in office, the looming presence of a separatist movement will undoubtedly complicate matters for Carney as he tries to demonstrate that Canada is strong enough to thrive without reliance on the American market.
However, experts tell TIME that pressure and rhetoric from the United States could actually work in Carney's favor. Laurie Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said: "The effect of Trump's comments has been unifying." Despite the independence debates in Alberta and Quebec, he says, "there is no widespread fear that the country will break up."
In fact, a 2025 study by the Environmental Research Institute found that "in almost every province, the proportion of residents who are very attached to Canada is greater than the proportion who are very attached to their own province."
With the U.S. and Canada locked in a trade stalemate, and threats of accession again dominating the conversation, here's a look at the reality Carney faces in the face of domestic and international pressure.
Trump's comments complicate Carney's efforts to unify
Trump's accusations that Canada has taken advantage of the United States on trade and security dates back to before Carney became prime minister in March 2025, meaning our friction now runs deeper than a simple clash between Trump and Carney.
Trump often refers to Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, as the "governor" of the "great state of Canada."
As for the potential for a physical threat facing Canada, Patrick LeBlond, professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, said Carney "did his best when he talked about the threat" in his interview with The Times. "It's a financial term for something that has a high potential impact, but a low probability," explains Leblond.
Experts point out that Trump's economic actions and threats have been far more harmful than his annexation statements.
"He has weaponized market access to the United States," LeBland says. What we can expect is more economic pressure from the White House in the coming months. "Trump and his cohorts certainly [seem] to see Canada as a small, weak country that the United States should try to squeeze more of."
The United States is Canada's largest trading partner, with $2.6 billion in goods and services crossing the border every day in 2024. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, trade between the two fell 4.6 percent from 2024 to 2025, but still saw the passage of $872.3 billion worth of goods and services.
However, there are concerns that any threat of annexation could damage Carney's high-stakes domestic campaign to unite the country under a "Strong Canada" strategy. "Our sovereignty is under threat. America's unwarranted trade war is an attempt to undermine us," Carney's Liberal Party online announcement said.
On the domestic front, the success of a separatist party in Quebec is another threat to the unity Carney is currently pushing for. However, despite Quebec's victory (although they were five seats short of securing a majority government), the desire for separatism among Quebecers remains low - according to data from 338 Canadians released on October 11, only 31% favor self-government in the province.
"Whether Quebec is on the path to secession or not, it's never because they were looking to align more closely with the United States," Turnbull said. Quebec enjoys various cultural supports in the Canadian Federation. They won't have any of that in the US.
A more immediate danger for Carney lies in Alberta, with residents poised to vote on whether the province should hold a referendum on secession from Canada after growing support for independence saw more than 279,000 signatures collected by July for such a vote. According to a poll by Canadian think tank The Writ conducted earlier this month, 70 percent of Albertans favor remaining in Canada.
Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, Alberta, touted Thursday's referendum as an opportunity for voters to "stand up for Alberta, the heart of Canada" and "recognize that we all have a responsibility to each other."
How can Trump's threats help Carney?
After Trump returned to power in January 2025, the president quickly expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st state, notably amid trade talks with Trudeau in February of last year, saying, "What I want to see is Canada become our 51st state ... if people wanted to play. That's right, 100% sure it will become a state."
Between Trudeau's Jan. 6 resignation and the April 28 general election, Carney's Liberal Party jumped from 20 percent to 42.8 percent in the polls, and Carney's message of defiance in the face of Trump was a rallying point, according to CBC.
This is consistent with a decline in positive views of the United States among Canadians. In July, 44 percent of Canadians surveyed had a favorable view of China, compared with 33 percent of Canadians with a similar view of the United States, according to a Pew Research Center poll.
"When China is more popular in a country like Canada than the United States, you have to ask yourself, 'What's going on?'" Leblond says.
Continued threats of annexation could bring Canadians even closer together. "Right now, trust is very low, and [more threats] confirm even more that the United States [may] not be a reliable partner at this time," Leblond argues.
Since the U.S.-Canada trade war flared up again in August, Carney has seen his popularity rise domestically. On October 15, it was 62 percent, according to Poliwave, compared to 56 percent in mid-July.
Carney's resistance to US economic pressures could help the prime minister, especially in potential separatist provinces.
"In August, when Carney pulled out of negotiations with the United States, the highest level of support for him was found in Quebec," said LeBland, who has shown a strong public appetite for his response to the trade war. According to Communications Strategies, Quebec's approval rating rose from 76% to 80% between August 17 and September 7, the highest of any province.
Turnbull says the support behind Carney's decision to pull out of the talks created a strong sense of "patriotism and loyalty".
This attitude among Canadians is reflected in the growing "Buy Canadian" movement, where consumers across the country have joined boycotts of US products in an effort to give back to the Canadian economy.
Carney strengthens international alliances to end reliance on the US market
In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to work toward becoming the bloc's first "associate member," what she described as an "urgent" resumption of partnership.
Speaking at the European Parliament as a guest of honor in Strasbourg, France, Carney insisted that "Europe and Canada are stronger together" and said: "Canada and the EU can strengthen our land to uphold our values while creating a protective canopy under which our citizens can thrive."
He warned that "economic integration will now be weaponized, tariffs will be used to apply pressure" and "fiscal mechanisms will be used to coerce" in a clear sign of a deepening trade war with the United States.
Trump has called the single membership proposal "ridiculous" and has threatened economic sanctions if the EU imposes sanctions. Proceeds with the von der Leyen plan.
Carney's Shift to Others "The companies don't mean Canada won't trade with the U.S., but it's no longer a desirable partner," Leblond said, noting that Carney wants to build relationships with partners who share the same values in terms of rules-based trade and investment.
During his trip to Europe, Carney also met with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and formally asked Canada to join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a coalition of ten Nordic and Arctic nations aimed at strengthening defense and security in the region.