New Research Shows American-Made Goods Also Became More Expensive Under Trump Tariffs

New York Federal Reserve research shows Trump tariffs added 2.9 percent to consumer goods inflation through February 2026.

Trump tariffs face midterm test as Americans grapple with high prices

Scott Lincom, associate professor of public economics at the Herbert A. Stifel Kato discusses how tariffs and affordability can play a role in the interim.

Americans don't just see the price of imported goods rise. Thanks to President Donald Trump's tariffs, they now pay more for products made in the United States, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In fact, the research shows that without Trump's tariffs, the price of many everyday goods would have fallen last year and into early 2026.

The findings provide new evidence of how sweeping tariffs, a centerpiece of the president's second-term economic agenda, have taken a toll on Americans' wallets — and it's only getting worse with the midterm elections a month away.

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Economists have long warned that tariffs would raise consumer prices, but their exact impact has been difficult to measure as trade policies change and companies decide whether to absorb the higher costs or pass them on to buyers.

Simply put, the New York Federal Reserve found that tariffs would keep the prices of many goods that Americans buy every day higher. Without the tariffs, prices across the consumer goods examined for this study would have fallen by early 2026. Instead, they increased.

The researchers estimated that the tariffs added about 2.9 percent to the prices of the goods studied. And the impact, in particular, was not limited to imported products, which were most affected by the tariffs. The New York Federal Reserve found that Trump's policies have increased the price of American-made goods.

The researchers estimated that about two-thirds of the increase in tariff prices came from imports, while about one-third was from products made in the United States.

A boom chart showing the Fed's findings: 30552508

The White House pushed back, arguing that the tariffs would ultimately benefit American workers and be paid for by foreign exporters.

Rogers added that the administration believes foreign exporters that rely on access to the U.S. market will ultimately bear the cost of the tariffs.

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"What we do know is that the tariffs have pushed prices up quite a bit," Lincicome said. What we don't know is whether prices will stay where they are or even go up a bit as companies eventually become complacent and start passing on more of the tariff costs to consumers.

He added: As long as the tariffs are in place, it is unlikely that we will see a decrease in prices.

The research also found that tariff-related price increases could take up to a year to fully pass through to consumers, especially as U.S. manufacturers face higher costs for imported materials and parts.

Although researchers estimate that the inflationary impact of existing tariffs has largely peaked, they expect consumer prices to remain higher than they would otherwise be.

Experts warn that 5 states could be the biggest losers in Trump's trade war with Canada.

The findings could have political implications as Trump and Republicans face voters in November after campaigning to lower the cost of living.

"When you campaign to lower prices and then actively raise prices, it's likely to hurt when voters go back to the polls and are angry that prices are still too high," Lincicome said.

Meanwhile, higher energy costs add another layer of pressure on American households.

"It's really a double whammy for American consumers because first you had tariffs that raised the price of a lot of products. And then you had energy prices going up because of the Iran war," Lincicome said.

He warned that rising diesel costs could raise prices beyond the gas station and increase transportation costs for businesses that rely on trucks, trains and farm equipment.

"These things act as another tariff because they increase the cost to you of getting that product," he said.

Amanda Macias covers the intersection of business, economics, and politics, focusing on how policy decisions shape markets, jobs, and American workers.

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