The emergence of two conflicting signals in Bitcoin that can change the fate of the price

Such data reveals a surprising contradiction in the Bitcoin market; With the big and rich wallets piling up at their all-time highs, futures traders are more inclined to short positions than ever before. At the same time, capital outflows from spot ETFs also put more pressure on the market [...] The post The emergence of two conflicting signals in Bitcoin that can change the fate of the price

Such data reveals a surprising contradiction in the Bitcoin market; With the big and rich wallets piling up at their all-time highs, futures traders are more inclined to short positions than ever before.

At the same time, the withdrawal of capital from spot ETFs has also put more pressure on the market and raises the question of whether Bitcoin can resume its upward trend or is there a further correction ahead? In this report, citing a report from BeInCrypto, we examine the behavior of large holders, the state of leveraged trading, and important price levels that can provide a clearer picture of possible Bitcoin scenarios.

The number of large Bitcoin wallets breaks the historical record According to the report of the analytical platform Sentiment, the number of wallets that hold between 10,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin units has reached 20,338 addresses and has set a new historical record. This number has increased significantly since mid-July, while the price of Bitcoin has experienced a lot of volatility during this time.

Sentiment believes that the behavior of this group of large holders in the past has been closely related to the future trend of the price of Bitcoin. According to this company, the increase in the number of large wallets in volatile periods can be a sign of the trust of wealthy investors in the future of this digital currency.

Sentiment described the trend as a hopeful sign for buyers, but warned that prices could still fall in the short term.

The company stated in its analysis: The continuous increase in the number of influential Bitcoin wallets, if the accumulation continues, can provide more favorable conditions for price growth in the future.

Of course, the increase in the number of these addresses does not necessarily mean that the inventory of all whales is growing, but it shows that more wallets now have between 10,000 and 10,000 bitcoins.

The increasing pressure of sellers in the futures market and the withdrawal of capital from ETFs, despite the positive signs in the behavior of large holders, the situation of the derivatives market is different. According to Darkfast, a cryptocurrency analyst, the funding rate of Bitcoin in the Binance exchange has reached negative 0.0073%.

A funding rate is a fee that traders of perpetual futures contracts pay each other, depending on market conditions. The negative of this rate shows that the pressure of short positions has increased and the traders who bet on the price decrease will pay the long position holders.

According to Darkfest, the last time Bitcoin funding rate on Binance turned negative was in June. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was in the range of 62 thousand dollars.

This analyst has explained that Binance includes a base interest rate of 0.01% in calculating the financing rate. For this reason, the funding rate reaching the negative range indicates a significant increase in the pressure of bearish positions.

This change in behavior occurred after the release of US Consumer Inflation and Producer Inflation data. Higher-than-expected inflation boosted the possibility of interest rate hikes, and the price of Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on October 15.

At the same time, spot bitcoin ETF funds in America also faced capital outflows. These funds recorded a total of $539.8 million in net outflows from October 1 to October 14, of which $261.5 million was on October 14, Soso Value data shows.

This trend change occurred while spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion and $2.65 billion in August and September, respectively.

Bitcoin price analysis; Will the $80,000 support be maintained?

Despite the downward pressure, the price of Bitcoin recovered part of the losses of the previous days and returned to the range of $82,034 with a growth of 1.49% in the 24-hour period.

This strong rebound puts the price once again above the average purchase price for US spot ETF investors (around $81,500, according to Glassnode data).

Referring to Bitcoin's correction after reaching the $87,000 range in recent days, Darkfast explained that sharp increases in short positions in the past have sometimes occurred before price rebounds. Because if the price rises against the expectations of the sellers, the forced closing of short positions can intensify the price growth. However, some of these returns have been temporary.

A few price ranges are more important in the current situation: Important Resistances: The $88,000 range is roughly in line with the average purchase price of investors who bought Bitcoin 6-12 months ago. Also, a significant amount of short positions may be liquidated near this level. According to Glassnode, the daily closing of the candle above $88,000, along with the return of investment into ETFs, could be a sign of strengthening buyers and attracting selling pressure.

Important supports: The $80,000 and $74,000 ranges are key levels of interest to analysts. According to Glassnode data, the largest accumulation of buy orders in the Binance spot order book was close to $80,000. Below this level, the real average index of the market is around 78 thousand dollars. This index is one of such criteria to evaluate the valuation of Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin returns to the $80,000 range again, checking the changes in the number of large wallets can help determine the continuation or cessation of the increasing trend of these addresses.

summary; Which group will determine the future direction of Bitcoin?

The Bitcoin market is now facing two different signs. On the one hand, the number of large wallets has reached a historical record, and Sentiment sees this as a positive sign for the long-term outlook. On the other hand, the negative funding rate and the outflow of capital from ETF funds show that the downward pressure is still present in the market.

In such a situation, the support of $80,000 and the resistance of $88,000 are the most important ranges that traders monitor. Holding the support could help the price to continue its recovery, while its failure increases the possibility of a move to lower levels.

Also, the concentration of short positions may provide the basis for the occurrence of short squeeze in case of sudden price growth. However, until there are clearer signs of a rebound in demand, an increase in the number of large wallets or a negative funding rate alone cannot be taken as a definitive sign of an uptrend.