Ukrainians Fear US Intelligence Cuts as Russian Attacks Intensify

Fewer Missile Alerts Raise Threat to Civilians as Trump Pushes 'Energy Ceasefire' and Peace Talks

KYIV, Ukraine – Supernova explosions, like those of Russian ballistic missiles, are accompanied by lightning strikes, shock waves, fires and deaths, and the shaking of Ukraine's air defense systems.

This week's overnight attacks in Ukraine, which killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens, resembled hundreds of previous attacks — with one exception.

List of 4 Items List 1 of 4 "Massive" Russian attack on Ukraine kills at least 9 and damages power sites

List 2 of 4 What is potash and why does the US import it from Belarus?

List 3 of 4 Laws of the Sea comes to life in Russia's sanctioned oil hunt

List 4 of 4 Musk says US military controls Starlink restrictions after Ukraine protests

End of list Air raid sirens began wailing just seconds before or after another wave of missiles hit apartment buildings, power plants and warehouses.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Ukraine's partners had not provided the country with intelligence data from NATO early warning satellites as tensions between Washington and Kiev rose.

He did not name the United States, and President Donald Trump has denied that Washington has stopped sharing information.

A constellation of military satellites detects Russian ballistic missile strikes by the missiles' thermal flares seconds after launch.

The warnings give Ukrainians up to 10 minutes – precious, life-saving time to sound air raid sirens and send emergency text messages to quickly evacuate bomb shelters.

"That's what helps prevent murder," Zelensky said.

Ukraine's ground-based radars can only detect incoming missiles because they range in speed from 6,000 to 12,000 km/h (3,730 to 7,260 mph).

Despite Trump's denials, Ukrainian observers have a simple yet heartbreaking explanation - the US president wants to help Republicans win more seats in Congress in the upcoming midterm elections by pressuring Kiev to declare an "energy truce" with Moscow that will lower global oil prices.

"Trump is putting pressure on our president, putting pressure on Ukraine" as he tries to "use any means necessary in the campaign," General Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy chief of staff of Ukraine's armed forces, told Al Jazeera.

He said that the lack of intelligence "significantly affects the effectiveness of air defense, we do not have time to respond."

He said that without satellite data, Ukrainian drones and missiles "lose accuracy when attacking targets deep in Russia."

On Sunday, Trump announced a cease-fire that would not include any counterattacks on energy infrastructure — from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating stations.

An energy truce is established in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides have agreed. Don't break it! Trump wrote on social networks.

Kiev said the announcement came as a surprise, while Moscow refused to say whether it supported the idea - and continued to hit out at Ukraine. Energy infrastructure

The pressure goes beyond refineries as Trump wants to quickly reopen, arbitrate and complete peace talks between Kiev and Moscow — even if it favors the Kremlin.

"He needs peace talks to succeed. Ideally, when Kiev shows a greater willingness to agree to Russia's demands, this is a clear blockage of the peace settlement process," Kiev-based analyst Igar Tyshkevich told Al Jazeera.

He said: This pressure will continue until "Kiev shows his readiness to compromise and give concessions to Russia".

He said Moscow was simply abusing the pressure and suspension of airstrike warnings to escalate attacks on Ukraine.

Kiev's "priority": destruction of oil refineries

The suspension of data sharing was particularly shocking because Kiev halted attacks on Russian refineries for three days.

Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, said: "It was only on Wednesday that the company's drones attacked refineries in Saratov and Ryazan regions."

Another observer said, however, that Kiev's focus on striking oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive.

Nikolai Mitrokhin of the University of Bremen in Germany, who has written hundreds of authoritative analyzes of the hostilities, told Al Jazeera: "Kiev's strategic priority remains the destruction of oil refineries."

However, Russia overcame the initial shock by moving gas from Siberian refineries and exporting it from Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Without economic collapse, widespread unemployment, he said, or public protests after the strikes, Moscow continued its airstrikes and added jet drones, which resemble cruise missiles and are difficult to shoot down with Ukraine's existing air defense system.

"What is the basis for the belief of Kiev and its supporters that an attack on oil refineries and warehouses will lead to the strategic defeat of Russia before the defeat of Ukraine? I do not understand," he said.

However, Ukrainian attacks on data centers, bridges and factories where drones are assembled are far more effective, he said.

Recent attacks on the data centers of Russian online giant Yandex and state-owned Sberbank led to service disruptions in Russia and even the former Soviet republics, where Yandex provides online payments, food delivery and taxi services.

Mitrokhin said Trump did not ask him to stop the war, cede cities or stop attacking Russian forces in general.

Kiev has repeatedly said it is ready to start peace talks if a ceasefire is reached, but Moscow wants to continue ground attacks and airstrikes until peace terms are finalized - which could take months or even years.

On Wednesday, Ukraine's drone king SpaceX accused Elon Musk of shooting down the Starlink satellite terminals, part of the military's StarShield system.

Sergey Beskrestnov said that SpaceX would suddenly and without warning limit services for terminals mounted on unmanned aircraft at speeds of 160 kilometers per hour (100 miles per hour).

This is a very important restriction, said Esterhi Strenenko, the adviser to the president: "They followed the interceptor drones and followed Trump's request."

Musk said the White House owns and controls Starshield's systems, and any speed limits would be decided by Trump.