Will Netanyahu postpone the election by entering a new war?

According to the resolution of the Knesset, the parliamentary elections of the Israeli regime will be held on Tuesday, November 5, and accordingly, political parties and currents in Israel have less than 12 days to improve their status in the public opinion of Israel and strengthen their vote portfolio.

The unfavorable situation of Netanyahu's coalition in the polls

According to the latest election polls, the current government coalition led by Netanyahu does not enjoy a good position among the public opinion of the Israeli society, and this issue could lead to the defeat of this political bloc in the upcoming elections. The latest results of reliable Israeli polls have evaluated the number of seats of the government coalition in the upcoming elections between 49 and 55 seats, which will mean the definite failure of this current to form a government.

On the other hand, differences have also arisen among Netanyahu's allied parties, and some figures such as Ben Goyer and Ofer Winter, criticizing Netanyahu's performance, have raised the possibility of their separation from the coalition with the current prime minister. Even among Haredi parties, there are now doubts about the alliance with Netanyahu in the upcoming elections. All these issues have caused Netanyahu to be more concerned about his political fate on the day after the elections.

One of Netanyahu's tools to avoid defeat will be to try to postpone the elections. According to the laws of Israel and the statements of the head of the Central Election Committee, in the event of an emergency, if it is not possible to hold the election, it will be possible to postpone the election until the time when the conditions for holding it are available.

According to Article 9 of the Basic Law of the Knesset, the extension of the parliamentary term beyond the legal term is only possible if there are special conditions that prevent the holding of elections on time. This decision must be approved in the form of a law with the approval of two thirds of the members of the Knesset. Elections should be held immediately after the emergency is over.

Therefore, in this framework, the government can declare a state of emergency and call for an extraordinary meeting of the Knesset to review the extension of the term, and if this law is passed with the approval of two-thirds of the members, the Central Election Committee will be obliged to announce the time when the conditions for holding the elections will be established after reviewing the security situation.

History of postponing elections in Israel

In 1973, after the Yom Kippur operation, the Israeli regime's parliamentary elections were postponed for 2 months. After the Al-Aqsa storm operation, the municipal elections were postponed for 4 months. Therefore, with Israel re-entering a new war, the upcoming elections of this regime may be postponed for some time.

Postponing the elections can be beneficial for Netanyahu when he can achieve a great achievement, strengthen his voter base and satisfy the demands of his allies. However, if Netanyahu fails to make significant gains by entering a new war, and the occupied territories are once again involved in erosion security threats, not only will his voter turnout not improve, but his current votes may also fall.

For this reason, entering a new war now will be associated with a very high risk for Netanyahu; Unless he reaches the conclusion that he has the ability to deliver a final blow to one of his enemies, especially Iran, or that the enemy will not be able to respond decisively to the attacks of the Israeli regime. Consequently, otherwise, entering into a new war will not benefit Netanyahu.

After the events of October 7, the credibility of Netanyahu's security image was greatly reduced in the eyes of the public opinion of the Israeli regime, and this caused Netanyahu to intensify the tension on various fronts in order to rebuild his security image. But the lack of tangible achievements for the Israeli regime during these wars caused Netanyahu's vote to fall even more. For this reason, there is now no guarantee that the re-entry of the Israeli regime into a new war will strengthen Netanyahu's position in Israeli public opinion. But if Netanyahu feels that there is no way for him to win the election other than entering a new war, he may commit suicide and use all his efforts to gain a special achievement and improve his status in the public opinion of Israel by attacking Iran.