Mark Halperin: Republicans are preparing for a wipeout. If it happens, who will they blame?

Political strategists on both sides are weeks out from Election Day, rehearsing the charges against their own side and preparing to win the argument over why it lost.

Mid-term elections are heating up as parties battle for votes

Democratic strategist Antjuan Sievritt and Cornerstone Public Affairs Director Cassie Smedle discuss midterm strategies as President Donald Trump swings through red states as he begins his campaign. Both Republicans and Democrats are working to support the midterm elections.

The political strategists I know in my professional life are some of the smartest, most interesting, knowledgeable, and influential people I've ever met.

They are also able to create animus for other people more than anyone I have ever met.

And I'm not talking about Democrats hating Republicans or vice versa. This is often a manageable relationship. Sometimes they even have a corporate client in common.

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The disgust I am referring to is within the party. That's when hatred is no longer comparable to all other human relationships.

He felt pure, unadulterated hatred for Alphaba more than Glinda did at the beginning of Wicked. More than one tenant despises his cruel and unusual landlord. More than the Red Sox hate the Yankees.

These people are experts in circle shooting squads and shooting bazookas inside the tent.

Most political strategists hate two things: losing campaigns and losing money. The pair is connected. Losing an election can cost you your next client. Being blamed for losing an election can cost you dearly.

Thus, there is a significant professional incentive to prove that the disaster was foreseeable, preventable, and definitely someone else's doing.

In the weeks leading up to Election Day, Democratic strategists are feeling good or great, while Republicans range from uneasy and determined to downright terrible. The latter has begun to repeat his accusations with a select audience. Some of these audiences are journalists.

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If the election disappoints, Democrats won't need a long warm-up period.

There are two parallel campaigns going on: one to win the election and one to win the debate about why it failed.

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On the Republican side, the simplest argument is also the hardest to refute. One man controls the party and his name is Trump.

His counselors can recommend a message, a plan, a spending plan, or a period of blessed silence. They cannot guarantee delivery.

So excluding Republicans creates a comprehensive indictment of Trump: his unpopularity, his indiscipline, his economic decisions, his foreign conflicts, his family's enrichment, and his seemingly inexhaustible penchant for attaching his name to things. Trump's encouragement of artificial intelligence and data centers is also hurting Republicans, alienating voters who see higher electricity bills and threatened jobs.

The staff's defense will be that they failed to control him. The prosecutor's response will be that responsibility for the consequences of his failure to properly manage is prominently included in the job description.

Late last year there was a plausible Republican case for optimism. Democrats were divided, the Senate plan was favorable, the new mid-decade redistricting plan seemed to be working, and Republicans could hope that voters would tolerate an economic package if the promised benefits kicked in.

Instead, a voter concerned about groceries sees a president concerned about building names. A family falling behind on retirement savings hears about a ballroom. Unable to buy a house, a young man watches the president's family make a deal.

This is not economics, stupid. Americans vote based on their personal finances

Each story provides a subtitle to the next story.

Political damage requires voters to conclude that the president spends more time on his surroundings than on them.

"Why is he focusing on a Washington art building instead of my wallet?" That's a question no Republican media buyer can answer with another video citing Zahran Mamdani or the AOC.

The Iran conflict exacerbates the problem: higher energy costs, another foreign war that seems to drag on forever, and a president who campaigned precisely to avoid this kind of entanglement.

House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune will face a related charge: that Republicans in Congress very few voters can feel, understand or remember. It's hard to sell a legitimate achievement that requires a staff briefing to appreciate in a 30-second spot.

Thanks to an emerging industry, the monthly bill Americans can't avoid is quietly rising.

Republicans have money. What they lack is a national message persuasive enough to make the money work.

Advisors say the committees launched old spots and recycled attacks and started airing them too late. If the patches fail, the people who approved them will explain that testing showed they worked. People who disagreed with them will explain that they always knew the experiment was wrong.

Participating publics are asked why voters can't just return Trump without Trump on the ballot. Candidate recruiters are asked why loyalty sometimes trumps selectability.

Individual candidates are blamed for hugging him too tightly or letting him go too quickly. Some may achieve the distinction of being blamed for both.

And the media will occupy its usual place in explaining the Republicans: burying the achievements, exaggerating the responsibilities and forcing every Republican candidate to replace Trump.

The Democratic version will be less focused on one man and significantly more crowded.

Let's say the Democrats barely win the House of Representatives and can't win the Senate. What might once have been a celebration of a successful midterm can become an indictment of a party that has convinced itself it is entitled to a much bigger indictment.

When a wave becomes the assumed outcome, any chair that cannot be washed on dry land becomes evidence of malpractice.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will be accused of poor leadership. Progressives will say the party offered voters too little to get excited about. Moderates say progressives have given Republicans too much to get excited about.

Strategists who make Trump the main issue will be accused of neglecting household expenses. Strategists who emphasize household spending will be accused of failing to impress upon voters the full threat of Trump.

Republican billionaires will be accused of buying in the closing weeks, and their Democratic counterparts will be blamed for sitting on their wallets.